Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 10

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET · Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH · NBC

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both sit at 6-2 and tied atop the AFC North, and Sunday night's rematch at Paycor Stadium carries sole possession of first place for the winner. These NFL picks for this week come down to whether Joe Burrow's offence can do what it couldn't in Week 3: beat a Steelers team built around a top-level defence.

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5: -108

My call here is the Bengals to cover. Cincinnati is averaging 30 ppg, leads the NFL in passing offence at 285.5 yards a game, and Burrow has 16 TDs in his last four starts while completing 74% of his passes. Pittsburgh won the first meeting 30-27 in Week 3, but that was a different Bengals offence before this four-game run, and I think the market is still anchored partly to that result rather than to how great the Bengals have looked in their four-game winning streak.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Cincinnati side

Cincinnati has won four straight since losing two in a row, including  a 34-17 win over Atlanta in Madrid in their last game. Burrow threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns and added a rushing score in that game, and he leads the league in QBR at 79.5. Ja'Marr Chase caught 10 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown, and Tee Higgins scored twice. The flip side is a Bengals pass defence allowing a 114.8 opposing passer rating, so I don't expect them to keep the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers in check. 

The Pittsburgh side

Pittsburgh is also 6-2, coming off a 27-6 win over Cleveland in Week 8 and the Week 9 bye, with Aaron Rodgers playing efficient football. The Steelers' defence is the strength of the team ranking fourth only giving up an average of 18 ppg. T.J. Watt's 7.5 sacks and Alex Highsmith's 30 pressures set the tone up front. Jaylen Warren is averaging 5.9 yards a carry, tops in the league among qualifying backs, but the receiving corps around DK Metcalf has been a complementary piece rather than a true number-one target.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Bengals -3.5	Bengals Moneyline
-108	-190
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Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Bet365's moneyline of -192 on Cincinnati implies a de-vigged win probability of 63% against 37% for Pittsburgh. My own number sits a few points lower, around 60%, because Pittsburgh's defence is the more complete unit of the two and already beat this Bengals team once this season. Still, this is a different Cincinnati team that lost in Week 3, and I don't think the market has fully caught up to four straight games of MVP-level quarterback play. That is the main reasons the Bengals are the pick. 

Cincinnati's offence is playing at a higher level than anything Pittsburgh's defence has faced all season, and I'm backing the Bengals to win and cover. Burrow should find enough explosive plays through Chase and Higgins against Pittsburgh's heavy zone scheme to create separation. The final score lands at Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 20, a margin that clears the 3.5-point spread and finishes under Bet365's 49.5 total.