Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 6

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN · FOX

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Indianapolis is 2-3 after a 34-22 road loss in Pittsburgh in their last game, but Tennessee is 0-5 with only six total touchdowns through five weeks and rank dead last in the league in scoring. The Titans have lost their last two meetings with Indianapolis by a combined 45 points, and Cam Ward remains the starter despite only leading his team to three points last week in a bad 26-2 loss to Houston. That gap is why I like Indy at home this Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts -6.5: -120

I'm backing the Colts to cover at home. Indianapolis is averaging 24.8 ppg against Tennessee's 11.6, and the Colts have won the last two meetings in this series by 21 and 24 points, respectively. Jonathan Taylor and the ground game should do most of the work, and I don't see this Titans’ offence forcing Indianapolis from moving the chains. I'd rather lay the 6.5 here for the Colts than chase a bigger number on the moneyline.

Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown: -225

Taylor has six rushing touchdowns in five games but has been held out of the end zone in two of his last three, including a scoreless afternoon in Pittsburgh. Tennessee's run defence is solid on a per-carry basis, 4th in the league in yards allowed per attempt, but goal-line volume is a different question, and Indianapolis has the better red-zone offence of the two teams. With the Colts a 6.5-point home favourite and running the rock early and often, I like his touchdown equity more than his yardage line.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Indianapolis side

Daniel Jones has thrown for 1,021 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions this season. Indianapolis averages 293.8 yards a game on offence but allows 384.2 on defence, a gap behind losses to Kansas City and Pittsburgh sandwiched around two wins, so this team wins by outscoring people rather than shutting them down, an easier job against a weak Tennessee offence. The Colts have converted 66.7% of their red-zone trips against Tennessee's 46.2%, the clearest path to pulling away when they get close. .

The Tennessee side

Cam Ward has completed 98 of 155 passes for 896 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions through five games, and his offensive line has already allowed 10 sacks protecting him. The Titans are winless, are on the road, and have an offence that ranks second to last in passing yards per game and 27th in rushing yards per game. In their last game they only scored three points facing a Texans’ team that came into the game winless, and they were at home. 

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD	Total Under 44.5
-250	-112
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Bet365's -345/+270 moneyline de-vigs to a 74% implied probability for Indianapolis against 26% for Tennessee. My own number sits closer to 71%-29%: the Colts' leaky defence makes a margin this wide feel rich, so the spread, not the moneyline, is my pick for this division matchup with Indy covering at home. 

I'm calling this one 27-13, Indianapolis. Taylor scores twice near the goal line given how thin Tennessee's margin for error is there, and Jones doesn't need a big passing day to win by two scores against this defence. Tennessee gets one scoring drive from Ward against a suspect Indy D, with the rest of its possessions stalling the way they have all season. A 14-point margin clears the 6.5 spread and lands the total just under 44.5.