Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 6

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL · CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Pittsburgh is coming off a 34-22 win over Indianapolis with Aaron Rodgers playing some of his best football of the season, and that shows up clearly in the Week 6 NFL Predictions market against a Tampa Bay team still starting Jalon Daniels for an injured Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers snapped a four-game skid last week in Dallas, but doing it again against a Pittsburgh team playing with far more stability at quarterback is a different task entirely. For more on how Pittsburgh has been trending, last week's Steelers coverage has the full breakdown of that Indianapolis win.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5: -114

I'm backing Pittsburgh to cover here. The Steelers have won three of five games this season and own the form edge at quarterback, while Tampa Bay is 1-4 and still has a backup rookie quarterback under centre. A 2.5-point spread for a team playing clearly better football right now, seems like the best pick, even on the road. 

Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown: +145

Bucky Irving is Tampa Bay's workhorse back, and I like his price to find the end zone. He carried 21 times for a career-high 165 yards and a touchdown against Dallas and will get another heavy workload. With Daniels leaning on the ground game to manage the offence, Irving should see enough volume to get this number home even if Tampa Bay trails for stretches of the game.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Steelers side

Pittsburgh's offence is averaging 22.2 ppg, 18th in the league, and has topped 30 points in two of its last three outings. The Steelers' defence ranks tied for 10th at 21.8 points allowed, a mark that should hold up well against a Tampa Bay offence that has struggled to find rhythm on offence all season That gap between an offence rounding into form and a top-ten defence is the core of why I like Pittsburgh laying the 2.5 points here.

The Buccaneers side

Tampa Bay is 1-4, and the headline issue is still at quarterback. Baker Mayfield has not returned to practice since dislocating his thumb in late September, and Daniels will make another start in relief. The Buccaneers are averaging just 20.0 ppg, 25th in the league, while their defence has allowed 22.4 ppg, tied for 15th, numbers that will be tested by a Pittsburgh that is coming off an impressive win with Rodgers under centre.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline	Over 39.5 points
-141	-108
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

I think the market is still giving Tampa Bay credit for last week's win in Dallas rather than pricing in the real quarterback gap this week creates. Pittsburgh's offence is outscoring Tampa Bay's by better than two points a game this season, and that gap starts with Daniels making just his second start in place of an established veteran. That is the concrete, specific edge behind my lean toward the hometown Steelers beyond the number on the board.

Last 5 Games: Pittsburgh Steelers

Last 5 Games: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rodgers and the Steelers have momentum after a solid last game and they face a Tampa Bay team still finding its footing under a backup quarterback.Irving will keep the Buccaneers competitive and get his touchdown, but Pittsburgh's defence hasn't allowed more than 27 points in any game this season and should cap how much Tampa Bay can put up points. A 24-17 final clears the 39.5 total and covers the 2.5-point spread that the Steelers will cover in the Sunshine State.