Washington Commanders vs New York Giants: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 5

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD · FOX

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Washington is the modest home favourite despite an underwhelming 1-3 start, and New York arrives at 3-1 off back-to-back wins over Tennessee and Arizona. Washington's defence has looked shaky through four games, which is the main reason this NFC East clash is closer on paper than the recent history between these two sides. This is among the more interesting NFL picks for this week mainly because Daniels is back under center.

Washington Commanders -3.5: -111

I'm backing Washington to cover at home. The Commanders have won both meetings with New York last season, including a 29-21 road win in December, and Jayden Daniels is back after missing two games with a dislocated elbow. New York's defence ranks eighth in the league at 19.8 points allowed per game, but Washington's own defence is the bigger problem, allowing 30.5 a game, 30th in the NFL. However, with Daniels back and at home Washington is the team to take.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Washington side

Washington is 1-3 and is coming off a 30-13 loss to Indianapolis in London. Daniels missed that game and the Week 3 win over Seattle, and Marcus Mariota started both, but was injured in the last game, so Daniels is coming back at the perfect time. Washington's offence sits 16th in the league at 22 ppg, but its defence is the bigger issue at 30.5 allowed per game. This is an issue , against a Giants offence that scored 36 points last week. While Daniels is back WR’s Stephon Diggs is out and Terry McLaurin is questionable. 

The New York side

While 3-1 the Giants have not faced one team this season that currently has a winning record. Jameis Winston only ranks 28th in the league in QBR, but had his best game in the last one passing for 250 yards with three TDs and two INTs. The run game ranks a legit 13th in rushing yards per game but the offense still only ranks 21st averaging 20.5 ppg. New York's defence has quietly been one of the NFL's better units, allowing just 19.8 points a game, eighth overall, but they will be tested with Daniels back.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Washington to Cover the Spread	Washington Moneyline
-3.5 (-111)	-192
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Washington's -192 moneyline on Bet365 implies a de-vigged win probability of about 63%, against 37% for New York. My own number sits a touch lower, around 61%, reflecting uncertainty over Daniels' workload after a two-game absence, so the market looks close to correct here rather than handing out a free edge. I still like the Commanders specifically, among this week's NFL prediction odds, because New York's defence is sound against the pass but has given up big runs, and Washington's ground game, with Daniels back, is built to attack exactly that.

I'm calling this one for Washington, 24-20, extending its streak over this opponent to three straight. Daniels' return gives Washington's offence a ceiling it lacked against Indianapolis, and New York's defence will keep this competitive but their offence will not be able to keep up. The Commanders will win and cover in Daniels’return and with the 44 points it is a shade Over the posted total.