Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 5

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA · CBS

Pittsburgh and Indianapolis both sit at 2-2, though the paths look nothing alike. The Steelers have alternated a win and a loss and three games have been close. The Colts have won two in a row after losing two in a row and have one blowout win and one blowout loss and a close win and a close loss. That contrast makes for one of the more interesting NFL prediction odds boards on the Week 5 slate.

Over 44.5: -109

I'm backing the over here. Neither defence has looked sharp lately: the Steelers are allowing 21.8 ppg and the Colts 26 ppg, while Indianapolis has already scored 30 points twice this season. The Steelers have scored 27 points in each of their last two games. Both offences can move the chains, and I think 44.5 undersells how these two teams have trended over the past four weeks. .

Jonathan Taylor Over 89.5 Rushing Yards: +115

Jonathan Taylor rushed for  95 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries against Washington in the last game and is averaging 88 rushing yards per game.  Pittsburgh only ranks 17th in rushing defense and in losing their last game they gave up 112 yards on the ground. Expect Taylor to get a heavy workload and rush for over 89.5 yards.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Pittsburgh side

Aaron Rodgers has played well in the last two games passing for five of his six TDs but he does have three picks in those games. One issue is at the cornerback position, as Jamel Dean is out and Jalen Ramsey is questionable and that is worth watching against a Colts passing game built on play-action. Pittsburgh is averaging 19.3 points a game while allowing 21.8, a scoring margin that doesn't match its billing as the home favourite, and that gap is why I don't trust the Steelers to keep this tight.

The Indianapolis side

Daniel Jones is off to a pretty rough start only ranking 22nd in QBR and he has more interceptions (4) than TDs (3). Jonathan Taylor has been the engine behind both Colts wins this year. Indy has a bangled up WR corps, as Keenen Allen and Darius Slayton are both listed as questionable. In Indy’s first two games they played solid teams and gave up 74 points while they played weaker teams in the last two games giving up a total of 30 points. Indianapolis is scoring 25.5 points a game against 26.0 allowed, nearly even, which tells me this offence can hang with anyone but still needs a defensive stop when it matters.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Total (Over/Under)	Steelers Moneyline
Over 44.5	-145
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Pittsburgh's moneyline odds of -145 on Bet365 imply a de-vigged win probability of 57%t, and I land only a point higher, around 58%, so the market looks close to right on who wins. The edge I see isn't the winner, it's the total: Pittsburgh's last two games against AFC North rivals have combined for 57 and 51 points, and neither defence has stopped anybody of substance this year. I'm not expecting a low-scoring afternoon at Acrisure Stadium.

I'm calling this one 27-24 for Pittsburgh. Rodgers and the Steelers' offence have scored at least 20 points in three of four games, and I expect Taylor to keep Indianapolis within range behind another heavy workload. Neither defence is built for a shutdown performance right now, and that points to the total clearing 44.5 with the home team finishing on top. My call is the Steelers win a higher-scoring game.