Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 5

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA · NBC

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Falcons have won two in a row with Michael Penix Jr. back after missing nearly a year with a knee injury. The team outscored Green Bay and New Orleans by a combined 42 points. Baltimore arrives 3-1, but Lamar Jackson missed practice again this week with an ankle injury and is out and backup Tyler Huntley will make his first start. That is the main reason Atlanta is the favourite in this non-conference game.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5: -103

I'm backing Atlanta to cover at home. The Falcons have scored 80 points combined over their last two games since Penix Jr. came back, and Baltimore's offence faces real uncertainty with  Huntley making his first start. I don't need a shootout for this number to hit, just Atlanta staying close to playing like the last two weeks, facing the Ravens, who are forced to go with their backup.

Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown: -244

Robinson has been the engine of Atlanta's turnaround, running for 494 yards and four touchdowns on 85 carries through four games ranking second in the NFL in rushing yards per game. He has two TDs in each of the last two games,where he has gone big rushing for at least 145 yards in each one. Even at a short price this is a solid value bet. 

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Atlanta side

Michael Penix Jr. has transformed this offence since coming back in Week 3 after a knee injury. Atlanta averaged just 8 ppg points a game in its first two weeks; since Penix returned, that's jumped to 40 ppg and 459 yards a game, with one turnover across both wins. He's thrown for 256 and 223 yards, respectively, with two touchdowns and an interception in his two starts, and Bijan and Brian Robinson have combined for five rushing touchdowns.

The Baltimore side

Lamar Jackson sprained his ankle last week against Tennessee and is out for this non-conference clash. Tyler Huntley will get the start and in relief last week he went 8 of 9 for 63 yards, but the offence didn't score on his series. Derrick Henry has not rushed for over 89 yards after rushing for 144 in the first game and in the last two games has failed to average over 3.4 yards per carry. Baltimore ranks 19th in points allowed at 24 ppg and it does not help that top WR Zay Flowers is questionable to go this Sunday.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Falcons to Cover the Spread	Falcons Moneyline
-3.5	-179
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Bet365's moneyline (Falcons -179, Ravens +149) implies a de-vigged win probability of 62% for Atlanta against 38% for Baltimore. My own number is wider, around 68%  because the market hasn't fully caught up to what a Huntley-led offence looks like against this version of Atlanta. The market is still anchored too much to Baltimore's 3-1 record and not enough to the fact that it was built with Jackson under center.

I'm backing Atlanta to win and cover. Penix Jr. has Atlanta scoring big in the last two games , and I don't see Baltimore's defence allowing 24 ppg, changing that on the road. Henry will still get his touches and keep Baltimore in range for stretches, but I'm calling it Falcons 30, Ravens 20, clearing the spread and going well Over the total.