Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 5

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN · CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Houston arrives at Nissan Stadium winless but they have been competitive, having lost three of four by a single score. Tennessee has struggled to find the end zone at all, ranking second-to-last in the NFL averaging a paltry 13.8 ppg. The weak Titans offense is not the only reason they are pretty big home underdogs, as they have only faced one team with a winning record and none of the Texans losses have come against teams with a losing record.

Houston Texans -7.5: -109

I'm backing Houston to cover here. CJ Stroud has thrown five touchdowns against zero interceptions through four starts, the kind of efficiency that explains why three of Houston's four losses have come by a single score. Tennessee's defence is the better unit, ninth in the league at 20.8 points allowed a game, but the Titans' own offence has cleared 20 points only once all season. A seven-and-a-half-point number is a fair hurdle against that weak offence, and I expect Houston to cover even giving more than a TD. 

Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +110

Collins has found the end zone three times in the two games he's played this season and while the Tennessee defense has been pretty good he is Stroud’s main target.At plus money, backing Houston's top target to score again looks like a good value.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Houston side

Houston is 0-4 but they have been competitive, losing 36-31 to Buffalo, 19-17 at Indianapolis and 34-30 to Dallas, with only the 20-6 defeat to Cincinnati the only lopsided loss. Stroud is completing 61.6% of his passes for 1,141 yards and while he has played well he has gotten little help from a run game that ranks 30th in the league in rushing yards per game. Houston's defence has allowed 27.3 points a game, 26th in the league, but Tennessee's offence is the one unit in this matchup that hasn't given anyone trouble, and that works in Houston's favour.

The Tennessee side

Tennessee's four losses have all come by one score or less except the opening 10-23 defeat to the Jets. Cam Ward has thrown for 726 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions, and Tony Pollard has carried the load with 221 yards and a touchdown on 54 attempts. The problem remains scoring: 13.8 ppg is the league's second-worst mark, and that number, not the defence, is why Tennessee is such a big underdog at home.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Texans to Cover the Spread	Texans Moneyline
-7.5 (-109)	-385
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Houston's -385 moneyline on Bet365 implies a de-vigged win probability of 76%, and my own number sits close to that at 77%, so the market looks efficient here rather than mispriced. The edge, such as it is, comes from how to play that read: laying 7.5 points against the league's lowest-scoring offence looks like better value than paying -375 outright for the same outcome. These two split a tight 16-13 game at this same stadium last November, so I'm not expecting a blowout, just a cover.

I'm backing a 24-13 final that clears the spread in a lower-scoring game. Stroud's no-interception form gives Houston a good chance to move the ball without turning it over. Tennessee’s offence will continue to struggle, so my call is Houston by two scores, the total just Under the posted number.