Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 10

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA · CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Kansas City arrives in Atlanta with the league's third-best scoring defence, allowing just 17.9 ppg, while the Falcons are 3-6 and coming off a 34-17 loss to Cincinnati after being shutout in their previous game. I like Kansas City's number here and with good reason with Patrick Mahomes and company facing a Falcons team with issues on both sides of the ball.

Kansas City Chiefs -3.5: -103

Kansas City's defence ranks third in the league, allowing 17.9 ppg, while Atlanta sits 23rd on offence at 20.9 ppg. Kansas City is 6-2 and facing an Atlanta offence that has not topped 29 points since Week 4, including a shutout at Tampa Bay in Week 8.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Falcons side

Michael Penix Jr. has struggled as of late and in the loss to the Bengals in Madrid he had one TD and one INT. Bijan Robinson leads the league in rushing yards but will be facing a good KC run defense. The team only ranks 23rd in scoring and tied for 20th in defensive scoring. They have lost four of five games and have failed to find consistency all season. 

The Chiefs side

Patrick Mahomes leads an offence that ranks 10th in scoring and he just got another weapon with KC trading for Indy WR Josh Downs. Kenneth Walker III has the third most rushing yards and has 100+ in three of the last five games. The Chiefs have held three of their last five opponents under 25 points, including just 6 to the Chargers and 12 to the Jets, and their two losses this season have both come on the road, at Seattle and at Denver, who sit 7-2 atop the AFC West. This week's trip to Atlanta puts Kansas City against a defence that is not nearly as good as the two teams they lost to. 

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Chiefs -3.5	Chiefs Moneyline
-103	-190
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Kansas City's -182 moneyline on Bet365 works out to a de-vigged win probability of 62% for the Chiefs against 38% for Atlanta. My own number lands a little higher, around 64%, close enough that I'd call this one priced about right rather than a mismatch. If there's an edge, it's less about who wins and more about margin: Atlanta's trouble on both sides of the ball is the kind of problem that argues for backing Kansas City by more than the market's 3.5 points. 

I'm backing Kansas City to win by double digits and cover this spread. Atlanta issues on offence and defence have not settled all season, and that problem will not go away in one week against a Chiefs defence that just held the Jets to 12 points in the last game. My call is 27-17, a combined 44 points that stays under the total, since neither offence has sustained a high-scoring pace over its last five games. That margin clears the 3.5-point spread with room to spare.