Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 10

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN · CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Indianapolis dropped its fifth straight game last week, a 27-23 loss to Dallas, and now catches a Miami team that has lost four of its last five. Both offences sit near the bottom of the league in scoring, a split that frames the NFL picks for this week on this side of the slate. The Colts open at home as 3.5-point favourites, and Daniel Jones will start after being on the trade block and with Malik Willis on IR, Kyle McCord will get his first career start.

Indianapolis Colts -3.5: -110

My call here is Indianapolis at -3.5. Miami's only win of the season came against a Jets team that has also struggled, and the Colts get a one-score spot at home after a tough stretch of opponents. I like the Colts to find a positive game script here against a Dolphins’ team that rank second-to-last in the league in scoring and only scored nine points in their last game.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Indianapolis side

Indianapolis is 2-7 and has been outscored 249-184 across nine games, with the current five-game skid running at 16.4 ppg scored against 29 ppg allowed. Daniel Jones gets the go again and Jonathan Taylor is the focal point of the offence, but the team is still banged up on both sides of the ball. 

The Miami side

Miami is 1-7 and last in the AFC East, coming off a 19-9 home loss to Detroit. Kyle McCord will get his first career start for a team that has struggled to move the ball all season. Ollie Gordan III has been pretty good out the backfield but with the Dolphins often down early he has not gotten a huge workload. Miami is averaging 15.8 ppg and allowing 25 ppg on the season, numbers that explain why the Dolphins are the road and an underdog by 3.5 points.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Colts -3.5	Colts Moneyline
-110	-200
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Bet365's -200 price on Indianapolis implies a raw win probability of about 67% before the vig; worked through alongside Sports Interaction's matching -200/+165 line, the de-vigged split comes out to 64% Colts and 36% Dolphins. My own number sits close to that, at 62% Colts, so the market looks close to efficient on the moneyline. 

The real value, to me, is on the spread: the market undervalues how one-sided the opponent quality has been behind the Colts' skid, four losses to teams that are a combined 22-11 this season, against a Dolphins offence going with a first time starter and a myriad of other issues for a one-win team. 

I'm backing a 23-12 final. Jonathan Taylor gets enough early-down work to keep Indianapolis ahead on the clock, and playing in a dome removes any weather excuse for a Miami passing game leaning on McCord. That 35-point combined score goes under and with the Indy win by 11 points they will easily cover giving 3.5 points.