New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 5

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ · CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

New York is 1-3 on the young season and has lost three straight, including a 12-23 defeat in Chicago last week. Cleveland is 3-1 and has won three in a row, the latest a 27-24 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Still, at home and with the oddsmakers still iffy on the Browns. The Jets are the very slight home favorite.

Clevleand Browns _+105 (-105)

I'm backing the points with Cleveland. New York's offence is averaging just 19.0 points a game, 24th in the league, against a Browns defence allowing 23.8 a game, 18th, not great, but enough against this version of the Jets. New York beat Cleveland 27-20 at home last November, but this season’s Browns side arrives in far better form than that one did.

DeShawn Watson Over 200 Passing Yards -116

Cleveland QB DeSean Watson is averaging 213.8 yards a game through four starts, comfortably above this 200-yard line, with six touchdowns against two interceptions. New York ranks 11th in the league in points allowed, but that owes more to limiting points than yardage, and Cleveland's passing volume alone backs the over.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The New York side

QB Geno Smith is completing 72.6 percent of his throws for 902 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions, numbers that look better than the Jets 1-3 record. New York's defence has actually held up, 21.0 points allowed per game, 11th in the NFL, which is why I like Cleveland to cover this with the short spread. 

The Cleveland side

Deshaun Watson has thrown for 855 yards and six touchdowns against two interceptions this season, and Cleveland has won three straight since a season-opening loss in Jacksonville. Quinshon Judkins has handled the backfield load, and Cleveland is the team playing with momentum heading into New Jersey.

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Cleveland Browns Spread	Cleveland Browns Moneyline
-1.5	+105
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Browns moneyline odds of +108 on Bet365 imply a de-vigged win probability of 46% for Cleveland against 54% for New York. My own number sits closer to even, around 50-50, because New York's record looks worse than its underlying form, a defence allowing 21 ppg  doesn't fit a three-game skid, and Cleveland's own defence, allowing 23.8 ppg, isn't clearly better. The edge is tough in this one for two teams that have mightily struggled in the last few seasons. 

I'm backing Cleveland to go into MetLife Stadium and either win outright or cover the short spread. The Browns have been efficient on offence and decent on defence. New York's own defence keeps this from turning into a high-scoring game. My call is Cleveland 20, New York 17, a result that covers the Browns spread with the total going Under.