New England Patriots vs New York Jets: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 6

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA  CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Drake Maye torched Las Vegas 45-17 last week, but now he faces a Jets pass rush that already has 17 sacks this season. New York enters off a 17-12 grind past Cleveland, while New England has won its last two meetings with its division rival by a combined score of 69-24.

Patriots -7.5: -103

I'm backing New England to cover at home. New York's line has allowed 16 sacks through five games, and the Pats front-line D has logged 11 sacks and will be facing a banged-up Jets’ O-line. TheJets are converting just 35.8% of third downs, a tall order against a Patriots defence allowing only 18.8 ppg, 4th in the league. New England has won the last two meetings with New York by 13 and 32 points, respectively, and off last week's blowout, I don't see the Jets' offence keeping this one inside a touchdown on the road.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Surging Side

New England has won three of its last four games, with Maye running an offence that just put up 45 points on Las Vegas. The Pats are 2-0 at home this season and have been balanced ranking 10th in both passing and rushing yards per game. A Jets attack averaging just 18.6 ppg, 27th in the NFL, gives the Patriots a soft target to attack, and a third straight home cover looks reachable against a Jets’ offence that has struggled to move the ball this season. 

The Resilient Side

Geno Smith has thrown six touchdowns and zero interceptions this season, but New York ranks 26th in total offensive yards. The Jets' defence is the bright spot, sitting 5th in points allowed and forcing three fumbles in last week's win over Cleveland. Garrett Wilson remains the focal point of the passing game, and that defence gives New York a route to staying competitive if it turns a New England giveaway into points, something the Patriots have allowed too often with 11 turnovers. Sustaining drives against New England's pass rush will decide whether the Jets stay in it.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Patriots Spread	Under 43.5
-7.5 (-103)	-110
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

I think the market is pricing the spread correctly, and New England's -7.5 number already reflects the gap between these two teams. Where I see a sliver of value is the total: New England's offence is averaging 372 yards a game against a Jets defence that ranks 4th in yards allowed, while a Jets offence managing only 284 yards a game runs into a Patriots unit that ranks 5th in yards surrendered. Two defences built to limit territory on both sides is the concrete reason I expect this to finish Under 43.5 points.

Last 5 Games: New England Patriots

Last 5 Games: New York Jets

I'll take New England 27, New York 13. Maye's protection up front should produce multiple scoring drives against a Jets defence that hasn't faced an offence playing this well since Week 2. Smith will move the ball in spurts, but New York's red-zone offence, converting touchdowns on only 46.2% of trips, points to field goals rather than touchdowns when the Jets get close. The Pats’ run game should also let them control the clock in the second half, which covers the spread and keeps the total south of 43.5.