New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 5

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA · CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

New England is favoured at home on Sunday despite a 2-2 start, but they have lost to two good teams. Las Vegas is at 3-1 behind strong play from Kirk Cousins and a turnover margin of +3. The Raiders have the offence with the pass attack but the defence and run game has struggled. While the Pats have a turnover margin of -5 and only ranked 30th in ppg, they put up 29 points in their last game and their defence has been solid.

New England Patriots -3.5: -111:

I'm backing New England here. Both teams were impressive in their last games with the Pats handing the Bills their first loss of the season and the Raiders losing to the Chiefs by only three points. New England's offence is the obvious weak link, but they did put up 29 points in their last win over Buffalo. The Pats only have to carry a modest 3.5-point home spread, and I trust their defence to keep this tighter and lower-scoring than the Raiders' 28.8-point average suggests.

Ashton Jeanty Over 60.5 Rushing Yards: +100

Jeanty is averaging 66.0 rushing yards across Las Vegas's first four games, but has not rushed for over 58 yards in the last three games. New England's run defence has allowed 104.0 yards per game, 14th in the league, not the shutdown unit its overall scoring numbers suggest. With Las Vegas likely needing to control the clock here, I like Jeanty to get the volume and clear this number with a lot of carries.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The New England side

Drake Maye enters this game coming off being named the conference's Offensive Player of the Week, and New England's defence, 6th in the NFL at 19.3 points allowed per game, is the strength of the team. The problem is the offence, 30th in the league at 16.3 ppg. A home game against a Raiders’ team that has a legit offence with the pass game but issues in the run game and on defence give New England good value

The Las Vegas side

Kirk Cousins has Las Vegas scoring 28.8 points a game and while he has played well, Jeanty has not cracked 58 rushing yards in the last three games. However, he will do so in this game with a lot of carries to keep the Las Vegas defence off the field. The concern on the road is exactly that defence, which just gave up 30 in a 3-point  loss to Kansas City.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Patriots Spread	Patriots Moneyline
-3.5	-210
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Patriots moneyline odds of -200 on Bet365 imply a de-vigged win probability of 64%for New England against 36% for Las Vegas. I have this closer to 59%-41%, a five-point gap, with the Pats’ defense playing well despite facing a Raiders’ offence that ranks seventh in the NFL in ppg. 

I'm backing New England to grind out a tight, lower-scoring win at home. Maye doesn't need big numbers, he needs to protect the ball and let the Patriots' defence do the rest, and that unit has been the best on either roster through four weeks. Las Vegas may now be a legit team but that team still has question marks and are on the road facing a Pats’ squad that is coming off an impressive win and at home. My score: Patriots 20, Raiders 16, clearing -3.5 without the shootout the Raiders' scoring average might suggest.