New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 9

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA · FOX

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

New England is 5-3 and like the Packers they are winners of four of its last five, and Green Bay is also 5-3 after a 27-19 win over Carolina last Thursday. Sunday's NFL prediction odds favour New England by three points at home, a number that fits a matchup between two teams separated by very little through eight games. New England's defence has been the slightly steadier unit all season, while Green Bay's offence remains the question mark heading into Foxborough only ranking tied for 23rd in scoring.

New England Patriots -3.0: -115

I'm backing New England to win and cover at home. The Patriots average 23 ppg to Green Bay's 21.4 ppg, and New England allows 20.3 ppg to Green Bay's 20.5 ppg, close enough on both sides of the ball that home field should clear a short 3-point number. New England also owns a 29-26 road win over a Buffalo team now sitting atop the AFC East at 6-1, while two of the Packers only have one win this season facing a team with a winning record. 

Drake Maye Over 225 Passing Yards: -141

Maye has thrown for 235, 321 and 199 yards in his last three starts, clearing this number in two of three and averaging 251.7 yards over that stretch. Green Bay ranks 14th in passing yards allowed, but the last game was the first in five where he did not have over 225 passing yards and at home he will clear that mark.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The New England side

New England carries a clean injury report into Sunday's game, and its defence has given up more than 30 points just once all season, a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville in Week 3. That floor is why I expect the Patriots to cover the spread being a winning team, which is whatGreen Bay has struggled with this season. 

The Green Bay side

The Packers have won four of five games but the only win of note was a thrashing of a legit Bears’ team. However, the team has yet to duplicate that in the last three games where they are 2-1 and have not scored more than 27 points. Jordan Love leads the league in passing yards but the run game, even with Josh Jacobs back, has not done much and the Packers have had issues scoring the pill.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Patriots -3.5	Patriots Moneyline
+105	-165
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

New England's price implies a de-vigged win probability of 61% to Green Bay's 39%, and these two teams grade out closely enough that I don't stray far from that number. My own estimate sits at 63%-37%: I think the market slightly undersells New England's edge on both sides of the ball, especially on offence, a gap a 3-point home number doesn't fully price in. It's a slight lean toward the team at home in what should be a pretty close game, but still one the home side will cover. . 

New England Patriots - Last 5 Games

Green Bay Packers - Last 5 Games

I'm calling this one New England Patriots 27-23 Green Bay Packers. The Patriots have held opponents under 20 points in five of eight games this season, and I expect their D to hold up against a Packers offence that has had their ups but downs as well. The two teams combining for 50 points clears the 47-point total, with the Patriots team doing enough on both sides of the ball to cover only giving three points in their house.