NFL Week 1 Player Prop Best Bets & Odds
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET - Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110) @ GB
Jahmyr Gibbs might just be the most talented running back in the NFL. He’s as fast as all heck, he’s quick in small spaces, and he can bounce off a tackle. As a rookie, he averaged 63.0 rushing yards per game. Last year, he averaged 83.1. And that includes topping this 64.5 prop on NFL betting sites in 13 of 17 regular season games last year. And most of those came with David Montgomery healthy.
On top of that, the Packers actually seem like a nice draw for him in Week 1. They will probably have a pretty solid defense throughout the year, but here in Week 1 just a few days into the Micah Parsons era, the front seven might be a little bit out of whack. Parsons is obviously a better player than Kenny Clark, who he was traded for, but Clark plays a different position than Parsons, so figuring out the new hierarchy might take time. Jerry Jones was going after Clark for his run-stopping prowess too. We’re not sure how much stock you want to put in that though.
Lastly, Gibbs was actually a road warrior last season, so this being an away game actually kind of plays into our hands here. He has averaged more rushing yards per game on the road than in home games in his career, and he averaged over 89 away from Detroit in 2024. He went below this number in just one of eight road games last season.
James Conner, RB, ARI - Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-110) @ NO
The 2025 Saints could be one of the worst teams in recent NFL memory. They have real potential. They’re somehow just 6.5-point underdogs here, but we think the Cardinals are going to blow the doors off of them. And if they do, James Conner will be right there to soak up all the extra touches he can in garbage time. Conner hit 68+ in his last four full games of 2024, and we think with the Cardinals playing with a lead for most of this game, he should reach this number no problem.
Tyler Warren, TE, IND - Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. MIA
Daniel Jones is getting a second chance as the starting QB for the Colts in 2025. We simply can’t imagine this actually working out. But what we do know is that he’s going to have to pass the ball at some point. And when he does, we think he’ll opt for the dump off variety to first-round tight end Tyler Warren. He won’t be Brock Bowers level, but this guy is gonna see a ton of targets in year one despite the wide receiver talent in the building.
Malik Nabers, WR, NYG - Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-110) @ WAS
With a contingent of Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock, and Daniel Jones at QB during his rookie year, Malik Nabers broke NFL records with his production. He had 109 receptions for 1,204 yards last year, and with Russell Wilson now at the helm, his numbers should see a jump. Especially against a porous pass defense like Washington’s in Week 1. And we’re not saying Russ is back to his old self, but even this version of him is better than what Nabers had last year.
