NFL Week 3 Player Prop Best Bets, Picks, & Odds

Alex Murray
By: Alex Murray
Sep 20, 2025
NFL Picks
Attribution 3.0 Unported

Attribution 3.0 Unported

The New York Jets’ rushing offense turned out to be a paper tiger, and our bets on two lower-level guys did not come off. Thank god for Tyler Warren, huh? We’ve learned from our mistakes, however. We’re no longer looking to get cute by betting on unknown TEs like Brenton Strange and depth receivers like Jahan Dotson.

We’re getting back to our basic formula that worked so well last year: quality player, plus matchup, and large touch/target share potential. So, with that in mind, let’s get back to our winning ways with our four best player props for the upcoming Week 3 slate in the NFL.

2025 Player Props Best Bet Record: 2-6 (-4.18)

Highlights

  • Kyle Pitts has started well in 2025, and Carolina is allowing over 90 yards a game to TEs
  • We hit Tyler Warren’s over in Weeks 1 and 2, and we’ll continue dialing it up until it fails
  • Javonte Williams has been one of the biggest surprises at the RB position this year

NFL Week 3 Player Prop Best Bets & Odds

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL - Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110) @ CAR

Kyle Pitts already has 11 receptions for 96 yards on 13 targets. He’s averaging 48 yards a game as well, more than he has since that rookie year, the only one in which he reached 1,000 yards. He had 59 in Week 1 and would’ve had a similar amount in Week 2 if the Vikings had stayed in the game. He had three receptions for 34 yards in the first quarter before Atlanta pulled away.

In Week 3, Pitts gets a plus matchup against the Cardinals. Through two weeks, Arizona has allowed an NFL-high 19 receptions to tight ends, and the 159 yards they’ve given up is fourth. In Week 1, Saints tight end Juwan Johnson had one of the best games of his life, grabbing eight balls for 76 yards. In Week 2, Carolina’s Ja’Tavion Sanders and Tommy Tremble had seven receptions for 54 yards and three for 20, respectively. This is a great spot for Pitts as long as the Falcons don’t pull away too early.

Tyler Warren, TE, IND - Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110) @ TEN

If it wasn’t for Tyler Warren, we might be 0-8 on our player props so far this year. So praise be to the scruffy rookie. His lines have been in the 40-50 yard range each week so far, with Week 3’s 49.5 line the highest betting sites have offered on the Colts rookie tight end so far this season. His 25.8 percent target share is the third-highest among TEs this season, and his 155 yards rank first. He has had 70+ yards in each of his first two games.

And it turns out, he gets a solid matchup in Week 3. Not that matchups have mattered for him so far. Evan Engram disappointed against the Titans in Week 1, but Tyler Higbee had 37 yards to hit his over against Tennessee in Week 2. Warren is a much bigger part of the Indy offense than either of those guys. And honestly, until a defense shows they can stop him, we’re going to keep backing Warren. He has popped up on the injury report with a toe injury, however, so keep an eye on that.

Alvin Kamara, RB, NO - Over 24.5 Receiving Yards @ SEA

As expected, Alvin Kamara has been a major part of the Saints’ offense in 2025. He has been the workhorse RB1 and has seen eight of the nine targets for running backs through two weeks. He has not crossed this 24.5-yard prop line, having gone for 12 and 21 so far, but we believe he will see a ton of work against the Seahawks.

Through two weeks, the Seahawks have allowed 211 receiving yards to opposing running backs, which is almost 50 yards more than the next-worst in football. In Week 1, CMC had nine receptions for 73 yards through the air, and in Week 2, Jaylen Warren had four for 86 yards. In both games, the secondary back also had multiple receptions. This is just the time for Kamara to get back to his old screen pass success.

Javonte Williams, RB, DAL - Over 64.5 Rushing Yards @ CHI

There has perhaps been no more pleasant surprise at the running back position through two weeks than Dallas’ Javonte Williams. Rookie Jaydon Blue has yet to suit up, and Miles Sanders has just nine carries. Williams has handled over 78 percent of the running back carries so far while playing 74 percent of the snaps. He has also put up 54 and 97 yards on the ground in his first two games.

In Week 3, he gets the Bears’ mediocre defensive unit, and we think Williams continues to roll. They are allowing 5.3 yards per carry, fifth-highest in the league. The 246 rushing yards they’d given up to RBs through two weeks were also third-most in football. Jordan Mason went for 68 on 15 carries in Week 1, and in Week 2, Jahmyr Gibbs had 94 and David Montgomery had 57. Williams should have a field day.

Sports Interaction
125% Up To C$250

T&Cs Apply

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.