NFL Week 17 Player Prop Best Bets & Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
Chase Brown, RB, CIN - Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110) vs. ARI
Unsurprisingly, Bengals running back Chase Brown has been having a much easier time in the running game since Joe Burrow returned. Teams having to respect the passing game and all that. The Canadian back has put up 50+ rushing yards in seven of his last nine games, including 65+ in six of those.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been helpless against the run recently. They are giving up 159.8 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks (second-most in the NFL over that time), which would rank last in the NFL if it was extrapolated across the season. Unknown Jawhar Jordan went for 100+ against this defense two weeks ago. Three weeks ago, two Rams running backs went for 80+. The week before that Bucky Irving had 61 yards in his first game back from injury.
We bet against this run defense last week and got cooked. But that’s only because Bijan Robinson’s number was 89.5 and him and Tyler Allgeier split 150 rushing yards right down the middle. That won’t happen with Brown. And even if it did, 75 yards would suit us nicely. Chase Brown is set for a big workload here.
Trey McBride, TE, ARI - Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110) @ CIN
Trey McBride has generally been the most reliably dominant tight end this season, but not over the last few weeks. He has gone for under 60 yards in two of his last three games. However, we think he’s set for a bounce back game here. McBride has put up 70+ yards in seven of his last 10 games after all.
The Bengals’ defense has been awful in nearly every area this season. But their inability to defend opposing tight ends stands out as one of their most unique challenges. They allow 90.8 yards per game to TEs, which is over 20 yards more than the next worst unit in this category.
Cincy gave up 40+ yards to two different TEs catching passes from a seventh-round pick last week, and two weeks before that they gave up 40+ and 90+ to two Buffalo TEs. McBride is better than all of those guys.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX - Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-110) @ IND
We’ve done pretty well with our QB props this year, so we’re not going to let Jacoby Brissett’s hiccup last week sap our confidence. Trevor Lawrence has been arguably the hottest QB in the league over the last four weeks. During that span, he is averaging 270.5 passing yards per game, fifth-most in the NFL. He has gone for 244+ yards in four of his last five games.
Meanwhile, the Colts’ defense has devolved into a sorry state. They are giving up 265.5 passing yards per game over their last four, second-most in the league over that time. In what we are taking as a sign of destiny, the Colts have allowed 247 total passing yards in each of their five games since their bye week. With betting sites putting Lawrence’s number at 247, this feels like kismet.
