NFL Saturday Week 17 - Green Bay Packers vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds & Picks - Dec. 27
All odds provided by Betway.
Packers vs. Ravens Game Prediction
Lamar Jackson is doubtful, so he’s been all but ruled out, with Tyler Huntley expected to start. In Green Bay, Jordan Love has been practicing this week, but we are still waiting on confirmation that he will emerge unscathed from the league’s concussion protocol. Backup Malik Willis has been dealing with a shoulder issue and an illness that mean he is also questionable.
In the end, we don’t think it matters much who starts for the Packers. They are simply the better football team top to bottom. And without Lamar Jackson, we doubt the Ravens will be playing with a lot of belief here even with their playoff lives at stake.
Baltimore can’t stop the pass, having given up more passing yards (277.5 per game) than any other unit in the league over the last month. Whether Willis or Love, they should be able to have their way here. Green Bay’s top 10 run defense should keep Derrick Henry in check as well if Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken doesn’t do it himself.
Neither of these teams is exactly rolling—Baltimore has lost three of four, Green Bay has dropped two straight—so we’ll take the more talented and more healthy team that’s playing at home in this one.
Best Bet: Green Bay Packers Alternative -3.5 Point Spread (-130)
Packers vs. Ravens Player Prop Best Bet
We believe this could be one of those rare moments where betting apps have made an oversight. Zay Flowers has been a bonafide WR1 for the Ravens this season, posting 5+ targets and 60+ receiving yards in 11 of 15 games. He has 84, 68, and 124 yards over his last three games. He’s averaging 69.5 yards per game on the campaign. And yet, his receiving yards prop here is set at just 50 yards.
Perhaps that’s because of the belief that the Packers’ pass defense is elite and Tyler Huntley coming in at QB for Lamar Jackson will cause Flowers to have a drop off. But neither of those beliefs are backed up by evidence. In fact, the evidence points to the opposite being true in both instances.
As far as the Packers defense is concerned, it’s not nearly as good as advertised. It’s definitely very good, and they have some playmakers. But they have been far from infallible, especially over the last few weeks. They have allowed 240.5 passing yards per game over the last month, sixth-most in the NFL. The 108.3 passer rating they’re allowing is also fourth-most during that time.
Last week, they gave up 97 yards to D.J. Moore. The week before that, Troy Franklin had 85 on six receptions while Courtland Sutton put up 114 on seven catches versus G.B. The week before that it was Luther Burden (67), and the week before that it was Jameson Williams (114). Even Justin Jefferson had 48 yards against this secondary in Week 12 in a game where his QB had just 87 total pass yards.
And that’s all before pointing out the obvious connection between Flowers and Huntley. In Week 6, Huntley came in for Cooper Rush and in just two drives, he hit Flowers thrice for 23 yards. Two weeks later, in Huntley’s only other start this season, nine of his 22 passes went to Flowers, who caught seven for 63 yards. Last week, Huntley (who went 9-for-10 for 67 yards) hit Flowers thrice more for 27 yards in just a half of action. Flowers should blow by this number, especially if the Ravens go down early.
Best Bet: Zay Flowers To Record 50+ Receiving Yards (-110)
