Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Braves vs Padres Odds
There’s no clear favorite for the series opener at MLB betting sites. The Braves are sitting at -113 odds on the moneyline, while the Padres come back at -114. The O/U is set at 7.5 runs.
This is the first meeting of 2026 between these two, but San Diego has dominated Atlanta in recent memory, going 9-1 in the last 10 matchups.
Braves vs Padres Analysis
After missing out on the playoffs last season, the Braves have come back with avengence in ‘26. Atlanta sits at the top of the National League East with a 48-28 record, and they have a seven-game lead in first place over the second-place Philadelphia Phillies. However, the Braves are just 3-7 in their last 10 contests, and they will be hoping to get back on track here. On both sides of the ball, Atlanta has been a phenomenal team this year, ranking towards the top of the Majors in numerous offensive and defensive categories.
Walt Weiss will turn to Grant Holmes in the series opener. Holmes hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a single start in seven straight outings, but he has struggled to pitch deep into games lately. Holmes hasn’t gone past the third inning in back-to-back appearances. The Braves bullpen could be busy here if he struggles with command again, but that’s not a bad thing. Atlanta’s relievers own a 2.40 ERA over the last two weeks, and the Padres are one of the most inconsistent offensive teams around.
San Diego will likely have a chance at making the Wild Card later this season, but it hasn’t been a banner year for them so far. Despite having such a talented roster, the Padres are only two games above .500, and they rank 30th in runs, hits, average, OBP, slugging, and OPS. Yes, we’re talking about a team with the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts. If it wasn’t for San Diego’s solid pitching staff, they would be in serious trouble.
The Padres will be hoping Michael King can contain the Braves on Monday evening. The righty owns a 3.60 ERA across 15 starts this season, but King has struggled immensely lately, posting a 6.65 FIP across his previous two outings. But, he’s quite familiar with this Atlanta lineup, holding them to a .242 average across 66 at-bats lifetime.
Braves vs Padres Picks
Holmes’ inability to throw strikes right now concerns me. He has a 9.53 ERA over his previous two starts, and the Padres have won two of their last three games at Petco Park. I’ll take San Diego to jump on Holmes and ultimately take the first game of this series.
Pick: Padres -114/TonyBet
.jpg "Photo courtesy of Wally Gobetz (Flickr), CC by 2.0")