UFC 291 Main Card Fights Betting Preview

UFC 291 will be held at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, on July 29th and could very well go down as the best UFC card of the year considering the firepower on hand. There is no moneyline favorite on most UFC betting sites and betting apps for the co-main event between Alex Pereira and Jan Blachowicz, which just goes to show you how well the matchmakers did with the main card here.

UFC 291 Main Event Betting Odds - July 29th

The co-main event features No. 3 light heavyweight contender Jan Blachowicz against former middleweight champion Alex Pereira. There will also be welterweight bouts between No. 7 Stephen Thompson and No. 15 Michel Pereira and between No. 12 Michael Chiesa and Kevin Holland. UFC legend Tony Ferguson will also take on journeyman Bobby Green in a lightweight scrap. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Light Heavyweight Co-Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Jan Blachowicz Odds

Two former champs are going at it in this one, and it’s being billed as a very rare literal pick ‘em, with both men offering minus odds on the moneyline. Blachowicz has bounced back nicely from his shocking loss to Glover Teixeira a couple years ago, with solid performances against Magomed Ankalaev and Aleksandar Rakic.

Alex Pereira is a different beast, however. His nickname is Poatan, which translates to stone hands, and he has done more than enough to earn that nickname. Pereira is making his light heavyweight debut, and it’s just as well, as 205 seems like a much more sensical weight for the bulky Brazilian. While his power won’t be quite as evident up here, Poatan already had more than enough to spare, so that shouldn’t be an issue.

Blachowicz is the more well-rounded fighter, but we just can’t see the Polish Hammer ever really challenging Poatan on the feet here. Unless Blachowicz steals some time on the mat in top position, Pereira’s +115 odds to win by knockout seem to be the obvious play for this bout.

Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira Odds

One of the best strikers in the UFC today and perhaps ever, No. 7 welterweight contender Stephen Thompson continues his Sisyphian quest for a UFC belt. The man they call Wonderboy has the most varied and unpredictable striking game in the sport, using a wide base to bounce in and out of the pocket and pinpoint his shots.

Wonderboy is 40 now, however, and his opponent is coming in on a five-fight winning streak. In a combined 65 fights, Thompson and Pereira have been finished just thrice. Nine of Wonderboy’s last 11 fights have gone to the cards and ditto for five of Pereira’s seven UFC fights. The odds for the fight to go the distance are at -188, and if they stay below -200, that bet is an absolute no-brainer.

Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Odds

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Tony Ferguson was once one of the very best fighters on the UFC roster, but after five straight losses, the last two of which have come by finish, El Cucy now finds himself a massive underdog to an unranked fighter in Bobby Green who hasn’t won in his last three fights.

Actually, Green has won just six of his last 17 fights and yet he comes in as an enormous -400 favorite here. At this point, it’s tough to predict what kind of Ferguson we’re going to get, but with his track record, Green is not someone you want to be putting money on, especially with those odds. The only worthwhile play here is on Ferguson’s +280 moneyline in the hopes that El Cucuy can rediscover his legendary form before he hangs up the gloves.

Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland Odds

This is a classic grappler versus striker bout. Holland’s takedown defense was comically bad for a few fights, but he has improved that part of his game a lot in recent bouts. Chiesa is a submission machine though, having won by submission in 11 of his 18 fights. It’s either going to be Holland by knockout at +145 or Chiesa by submission at +350, and you can bet both and basically ensure yourself a profit as long as the fight doesn’t go the distance, which it has in just 29 percent of their combined 58 fights.