UFC 292: Early Main Card Matchups Betting Preview

Alex Murray
By:
Alex Murray
18 Aug 23
Betting Magazine
News - UFC
UFC 292: Early Main Card Matchups Betting Preview

Another big UFC event comes on Saturday, August 19th at the TD Garden in Boston, where MMA fans will be treated to a UFC 292 main card that features no less than eight ranked fighters, including a tasty top 10 bantamweight matchup between No. 6 contender Marlon Vera and No. 10 Pedro Munhoz. The higher ranked Vera comes in as the moneyline favorite on all UFC betting sites and betting apps.

Highlights

  • Marlon Vera is a -230 odds favorite to win the opening bout of the main card
  • Mario Bautista is the smallest favorite on the main card at -220 odds
  • Ian Garry is a gargantuan -570 odds favorite against Neil Magny

UFC 292 Main Card Betting Odds - August 19th

Up-and-coming bantamweight Mario Bautista will take on Da’Mon Blackshear, who’s stepping in on seven day’s rest. After that we get the heaviest matchup of the main card as No. 11 welterweight Neil Magny steps in to try and hold off undefeated No. 13 Ian Garry. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz Bantamweight Bout Odds

Fighter

Moneyline

Win by KO/TKO/DQ

Win by Submission

Win by Decision

Total Rounds

Marlon Vera

-230

+450

+1,000

+120

O2.5 (-350)

Pedro Munhoz

+170

+1,000

+1,200

+225

U2.5 (+245)

The main card opens up with a bang as No. 6 bantamweight contender Marlon “Chito” Vera (20-8-1) and No. 10 Pedro Munhoz (20-7, 2 no contests) square off in the octagon. The pair of South Americans bring 29 combined finishes to this battle, so expect carnage.

Both of these fighters are fighting to stay relevant in the division at this point. Vera was mangled by Cory Sandhagen in his last fight and Munhoz hasn’t won two bouts in a row since 2019. There are a few sure things here, however: Vera is the taller man (5’8” to 5’6”), the longer man (70.5” to 65”), and the younger man (30 to 36).

Those advantages should hold Chito in good stead for this battle, because he’s also the crisper and more powerful striker of the two. Munhoz could steal a round because his pressure and volume are hard to ignore, but the most violent strikes are likely to be laid on by Vera.

Both men have eight submission wins to their names, but Vera hasn’t submitted an opponent in four years and Munhoz hasn’t done so in six, so we can expect this one to stay on the feet. At this point in their careers, Vera just seems like the more dangerous guy in the octagon, and he should be able to get the win here against someone in Munhoz who has become a bit of a “get right” fight for contenders in recent years.

While we like Vera, we don’t like his moneyline odds one bit, so let’s look at method of victory. No one’s submitting anyone during this fight, so forget that. Munhoz has a chin made of whatever that guy from Unbreakable was made of: he’s never been close to being finished in 29 fights. That leaves us with Vera to win this fight by decision at +120, which is pretty solid value when you consider the other options.

Mario Bautista vs. Da’Mon Blackshear Bantamweight Bout Odds

Fighter

Moneyline

Mario Bautista

-220

Da’Mon Blackshear

+165

Unfortunately, this fight isn’t what it could have been, as Cody Garbrandt was forced to bow out late with an injury. In steps Da’Mon Blackshear (14-5-1), who just won via first round submission on… August 12th. Yes, seven days rest. It’s not ideal, but it’s what we’ve got.

Blackshear is no slouch—his win last week was via twister submission, just the third time in UFC history a choke like that has been pulled off for a win. Mario Bautista (12-2) is also something of a submission specialist, having won his last three straight fights by first round submission.

For wrestling aficionados, this could be a very compelling watch: the two only have five KO wins between them, so they don’t generally stand and trade. But, considering their matching skill sets, we could get lucky and see two guys who aren’t the most polished boxers in the world slogging it out for 15 minutes. Considering Blackshear just fought last week, Bautista would seem to be a lock here, but at -220 odds he’s not worth the risk. 

Neil Magny vs. Ian Garry Welterweight Bout Odds

Fighter

Moneyline

Win by KO/TKO/DQ

Win by Submission

Win by Decision

Total Rounds

Neil Magny

+390

+1,400

+1,400

+600

O1.5 (-180)

Ian Garry

-575

+100

+275

+275

U1.5 (+140)

What can you say. No. 8 welterweight Geoff Neal was supposed to fight No. 13 Ian Garry (12-0) in this slot, but Neal had to withdraw last week as well. Admirably, No. 11 Neil Magny (28-10) stepped in to keep the fight on the card, and the 36-year-old is not backing down from his undefeated 25-year-old opponent.

The two got into a fiery war of words about child abuse of all things in the leadup to the fight, so both guys will be looking to knock the other one’s block off. Unfortunately for Magny, the young Irishman is looking like a freight train right now, having won all five of his UFC fights, three of which came by KO/TKO. Garry to win by KO is offering surprisingly reasonable +100 odds right now, so jump on that while you can.

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.