UFC 292: Preliminary Card And TUF Finals Betting Preview

Alex Murray
By:
Alex Murray
18 Aug 23
Betting Magazine
News - UFC
UFC 292: Preliminary Card And TUF Finals Betting Preview

Not only will there be the UFC 292 card at TD Garden in Boston on August 19th, but there will also be two fights on the preliminary card to determine the two winners of season 31 of The Ultimate Fighter. In the featured preliminary bout, former middleweight champion Chris Weidman comes in as a big moneyline underdog on all UFC betting sites and betting apps for his bout against Brad Tavares.

Highlights

  • Brad Tavares is a -260 odds favorite to win the featured prelim
  • Austin Hubbard and Brad Katona come is as the favorites for the TUF titles
  • Gregory Rodrigues is by far the biggest favorite on the preliminary card at -380 odds

UFC 292 Preliminary Card Betting Odds - August 19th

First, we’ll be treated to the bantamweight final of season 31 of The Ultimate Fighter between Brad Katona and Cody Gibson, followed by the lightweight final between Austin Hubbard and Kurt Holobaugh. After that we’ve got two middleweight battles, first a matchup between Gregory Rodrigues and Denis Tiuliulin, and then a bout pitting former champ Chris Weidman against Brad Tavares.  All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson TUF Bantamweight Final Bout Odds

Fighter

Moneyline

Win by Finish

Win by Decision

Total Rounds

Brad Katona

-160

+425

+100

O2.5 (-270)

Cody Gibson

+125

+375

+325

U2.5 (+210)

Not only is this a TUF final, but it also pits two guys who really dislike one another against each other. Brad Katona (12-2) and Cody Gibson (19-8) did not get along in the TUF house, so that should translate to some sparks in the octagon.

While Gibson has massive advantages when it comes to height (5’10” to 5’6”), reach (71” to 64.5”), and power (seven KOs to one), that he’s fighting on a torn MCL will not be lost on the laser-focused Katona. Katona doesn’t waste a lot of movement in the octagon and knows how to fight for the judges, earning eight of his 12 wins by decision.

If Gibson was at 100 percent, we’d love to go for the scrappier and tougher guy to win here, but Katona is likely to force Gibson to stay on his feet and trade on that torn ligament. Expect Katona to try and hit him with kicks from range and earn himself enough points to get the decision win, which we love at +100 odds right now.

Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh TUF Lightweight Final Bout Odds

Fighter

Moneyline

Win by KO/TKO/DQ

Win by Submission

Win by Decision

Total Rounds

Austin Hubbard

-175

+455

+800

+130

O1.5 (-270)

Kurt Holobaugh

+135

+670

+800

+305

U1.5 (+195)

The TUF lightweight final features Austin Hubbard (15-6), who is arriving here after two decision wins in the tournament, and Kurt Holobaugh (19-7, 1 no contest), who comes in having submitted one opponent and mauled the other in a decision win.

Holobaugh would seem to be the more dangerous fighter, but Hubbard is much more polished and well-rounded. Hubbard won’t let Holobaugh just swarm him and he should be able to use his superior grappling and wrestling to control this bout. We don’t expect a finish here, so we’re leaning toward Hubbard by decision at +130 odds. The fight to go the distance at -170 odds is still offering a smidge of value too.

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin Middleweight Bout Odds

Fighter

Moneyline

Win by KO/TKO/DQ

Win by Submission

Win by Decision

Total Rounds

Gregory Rodrigues

-380

+150

+200

+455

O1.5 (+150)

Denis Tiuliulin

+260

+400

+2,000

+1,000

U1.5 (-195)

In the most lopsided matchup of the preliminaries, Gregory Rodrigues (14-5) will look to bounce back from his last bout in January when he had his lights turned out by Brunno Ferreira. Now he faces UFC newcomer Denis Tiuliulin (11-7), who simply doesn’t seem up to snuff for this matchup.

Both of these guys love to slug, but Rodrigues would seem to have a slight edge in power and polish. Where he could really dominate, however, is on the mat, where Tiuliulin has shown himself to be an easy mark. Whichever way you slice it, this should not be a tough day at the office for Rodrigues. The Brazilian should make quick work of the Russian, so his +175 odds to win in the first round look mighty intriguing.

Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares Middleweight Bout Odds

Fighter

Moneyline

Win by KO/TKO/DQ

Win by Submission

Win by Decision

Total Rounds

Chris Weidman

+190

+605

+1,000

+345

O1.5 (-180)

Brad Tavares

-260

+135

+1,600

+225

U1.5 (+140)

Former middleweight champion Chris Weidman (15-6) makes his return to the octagon following nearly 30 months on the shelf after snapping his leg 17 seconds into his last bout against Uriah Hall. Weidman once seemed untouchable, but since Luke Rockhold brought his reign to an abrupt end in 2015, Weidman has gone just 2-6.

His opponent, Brad Tavares (19-8), hasn’t had a great time lately either, dropping four of his last six bouts. Weidman could overwhelm Tavares with his wrestling in his heyday, but it’s hard to trust that surgically repaired leg, especially considering he’s now 39 years old.

Still, Weidman has said publicly that he’s offended to be fighting on the preliminary card considering his pedigree. We expect that little extra anger and frustration to help push the aging star to a win over a pretty unimpressive opponent in Tavares. Roll with the legendary underdog here at +190 odds.

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.