UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley Main Events Betting Preview

Alex Murray
By:
Alex Murray
18 Aug 23
Betting Magazine
News - Boxing
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley Main Events Betting Preview

Most weekends UFC fans don’t get a title fight, but on August 19th at TD Garden in Boston, UFC 292 will have not one but two championship bouts to entertain and amaze fans. The co-main and main events of the evening will not disappoint, as Zhang Weili looks to defend her women’s strawweight title against Amanda Lemos and Aljamain Sterling tries to hold onto his bantamweight belt in the face of the always entertaining “Sugar” Sean O’Malley. Both champions come in as pretty big  moneyline  favorites on all UFC betting sites and betting apps, but can a challenger produce an upset?

Highlights

  • Aljamain Sterling is pretty chalky with -230 odds as the favorite in the main event
  • Zhang Weili is the second biggest favorite on the entire UFC 292 card at -375 odds
  • Both fights have shorter odds to finish inside the distance than to reach the final bell

UFC 292 Main Card Betting Odds - July 29th

With eight ranked fighters, it doesn’t get much better than this lineup for the main card at UFC 292. The main and co-main events are not only pitting elite fighters against each other, but exciting finishers who are largely looking to put on a show for the crowd. Don’t be surprised if the judges are not needed for the final two fights of the night. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley UFC Bantamweight Title Fight Odds

Fighter

Moneyline

Win by KO/TKO/DQ

Win by Submission

Win by Decision

Total Rounds

Aljamain Sterling

-230

+480

+180

+240

O4.5 (+155)

Sean O’Malley

+170

+265

+2,500

+570

U4.5 (-205)

Just three months after breaking a UFC record with his third bantamweight title defense at UFC 288, Aljamain Sterling is back in the octagon at 292. Sterling comes in on a nine-fight winning streak, six of which were decision victories. That’s not a knock on Sterling either, that’s just the way he fights. He fights to win, not always to finish.

The same can’t be said of his opponent, “Sugar” Sean O’Malley, who has been on a rocketship to the top ever since he entered the UFC octagon and started knocking heads off. At 16-1 (1), his only loss came against Marlon Vera but was largely the result of a freak injury that resulted in a broken leg for O’Malley. Before his most recent fight against former champ Petr Yan, O’Malley had knocked out his last five opponents.

This will be a classic battle of striker versus grappler, with the concrete hands of O’Malley going against Sterling’s mastery of the wrestling game. Sterling has just one knockout over the last nine years, so he doesn’t come with a ton of power, but he has really improved his striking game as a complement to his level changing in recent fights.

What we’re looking at here is simple: can O’Malley stay on his feet? If he can force Sterling to trade with him, this could be a short night, but that is a massive if. Sterling is like a dog with a bone when he gets it into his mind that he’s going to get a takedown. And usually, he is eventually rewarded.

O’Malley has not seen many tough grapplers as he’s shot up the UFC bantamweight rankings, and Yan, who is more of a striker, took O’Malley down six times for about five minutes of top control in their fight, which Yan lost via split decision.

O’Malley could win with a big knee when Sterling shoots, but it really seems like Sterling’s style is tailor made to frustrate the exuberant boxer. If you think Sterling is a paper champion, go with the value and bet O’Malley to win via KO at +265. For our money, Sterling is the real deal, and he matches up perfectly with a guy that might not be well-rounded enough for this fight. Sterling to win via submission at +180 or by decision at +240 are both great bets here.

Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos Women’s Strawweight Championship Fight Odds

Fighter

Moneyline

Win by KO/TKO/DQ

Win by Submission

Win by Decision

Total Rounds

Zhang Weili

-375

+150

+380

+280

O3.5 (+165)

Amanda Lemos

+265

+405

+1,000

+900

U3.5 (-220)

In the co-main event, it doesn’t look like oddsmakers are giving challenger Amanda Lemos much of a chance against the two-time champion Zhang Weili, and for good reason. At 13-2-1, Lemos has a nice record, but she hasn’t danced with a striker like Weili. Her most recent loss came last year to Jessica Andrade, a former champion who Weili starched back in 2019 when Andrade was arguably at her peak.

If your name isn’t Rose Namajunas, at this point it seems like you have no chance when you’re going up against Zhang Weili. Her striking game is so polished and varied, and she’s one of the deadliest there is when she spots a mistake on the mat. With Weili’s moneyline odds so short, it’s tough to choose which is the most likely method for Weili to win, however.

Considering Lemos is more comfortable on the feet, going for Weili at +380 odds to win by submission might be a sneaky good play here, as the champ should recognize that while she probably has a slight advantage on the feet, that advantage is much more pronounced on the ground. 

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.