UFC Fight Night 224: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura Betting Odds

Alex Murray
By:
Alex Murray
21 Jul 23
Betting Magazine
News - UFC
UFC Fight Night 224: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura Betting Odds

The UFC had a surprisingly good low key card last week which featured an upset submission win in the main event. Could we be in for more fireworks at the O2 Arena in London, England this weekend? It’s a massive stage for a Fight Night card like this, so all the pressure will be on the UFC’s No. 5 ranked heavyweight, Englishman Tom Aspinall, who is a gargantuan favorite on the main event betting markets at all betting apps and betting sites to dismantle No. 10 Marcin Tybura. 

Highlights

  • Tom Aspinall is a huge -535 odds favorite to win the main event
  • Aspinall to win by KO/TKO sits at a whopping -205 odds
  • Molly McCann has -235 odds to win the women’s flyweight main event

UFC Fight Night 224: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura Betting Odds - July 22nd

It’s surprising to see a card with just two ranked fighters play out in front of a crowd as large as the O2 Arena. Aspinall must have more clout than we thought. The odds would have you think the main event is a foregone conclusion, but with Aspinall coming off of a loss and the veteran Tybura having won his last two bouts, it could be a little more interesting than some expect. All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

Fighter

Moneyline

Win by KO/TKO

Win by Submission

Win by Decision

Total Rounds

Tom Aspinall

-535

-205

+200

+1,000

O1.5 (+145)

Marcin Tybura

+355

+505

+1,500

+1,400

U1.5 (-185)

Tom Aspinall Betting Odds

Tom Aspinall has been in the UFC since 2020 and has amassed a 5-1 record with the promotion, including five straight wins to start his UFC career. All five of those wins came by finish in the first two rounds as Aspinall has shot up the UFC heavyweight rankings.

His most recent bout against Curtis Blaydes was counted as a loss, but considering Aspinall went down with a knee injury just 15 seconds into the fight, there wasn’t much to read into there.

Aspinall has quickly become one of the most potent knockout artists in the division, and his dominance against the likes of Sergey Spivak and Alexander Volkov, both of whom are top 10 contenders, explains why he’s such a massive favorite for this fight. Not to mention the home ring advantage for Aspinall fighting in front of his home country fans in England.

The Brit made quick work of Alexander Volkov in his last win, submitting the Russian via arm bar in just under four minutes. Conversely, Tybura struggled in a decision loss against Volkov, which also speaks to Aspinall’s advantage in this matchup.

Aspinall is the taller man, he’s got far more lightning in his concrete fists, and his hands are surprisingly fast considering his size. Unless Tybura is able to take Aspinall down and get top position, this one will be Aspinall’s to lose. And even then, Aspinall is no slouch on the ground, leading all active heavyweights with 2.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Marcin Tybura Betting Odds

One of the few spots where Marcin Tybura holds an advantage over Tom Aspinall is Polish fighters extensive UFC experience. Tybura has been with the UFC since 2017, putting up an 11-6 record with MMA’s top promotion. However, he has won seven of his last eight fights, including two by TKO.

Those knockouts show that while Tybura definitely doesn’t have as much power as Aspinall, he’s got enough fire in those fists to turn a heavyweight's lights out. He has knocked out nine opponents during his professional MMA career, but even with those stats, it would be silly and dangerous for Tybura to try and trade on the feet.

Despite the fact that all of his six submission wins came before 2014, Tybura is still one of the better grapplers in the heavyweight division. He’s second among active heavyweights in control time with over one hour, seventh in control time percentage, second in top position time, and fifth in top position percentage.

Aspinall is tough to get down, but if Tybura can slip inside and find a way to wrestle him to the mat, he could win a round and make this thing a contest if he can avoid Aspinall’s concrete fists. If not, the main event could be a very short contest.

UFC Fight Night 224 Co-Main Event: Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko

Fighter

Moneyline

Win by KO/TKO

Win by Submission

Win by Decision

Total Rounds

Molly McCann

-235

+100

+1,400

+140

O2.5 (+105)

Julija Stoliarenko

+175

+1,400

+275

+550

U2.5 (-135)

In the co-main event, another Brit, Molly McCann, will look to impress in front of her fellow Englishmen and women. She was on quite a roll before her last fight, when she was pounced on and submitted via kimura in the first round. McCann comes in with a 13-5 record, but she has only lost back-to-back bouts once during her career.

That kimura loss is a bad omen for McCann as she will be going up against an absolute submission artist in Julija Stoliarenko. Nine of the Lithuanian’s 10 pro MMA wins have come via submission, but she’s also lost four of her last five fights. McCann is the more experienced and in form fighter, so if you’re looking for value, McCann by KO/TKO at +100 is a great shout.

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.