UFC Fight Night 231: Almeida vs. Lewis Main Card Betting Preview

Alex Murray
By:
Alex Murray
04 Nov 23
Betting Magazine
News - UFC
UFC Fight Night 231: Almeida vs. Lewis Main Card Betting Preview

The UFC finally makes its long-awaited return to Brazil on Saturday with an intriguing Fight Night card. It’s the first Brazilian event since November of 2019, and the headliner is a heavyweight battle between Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis. As has been the case for most of his recent fights, Lewis finds himself as a pretty big moneyline underdog on all UFC betting sites and betting apps for a bout that promises fireworks one way or the other.

Highlights

  • Jailton Almeida is offering -135 odds to win the main event via submission
  • The fight to end in the first round is offering very short odds as well, at -227
  • Welterweight Gabriel Bonfim is +175 to win in the first round by submission

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In the main event, sparks will fly as No. 9 heavyweight Jailton Almeida clashes with the No. 10 heavyweight contender and all-time UFC knockout king Derrick Lewis. The co-main event could be over in a flash as well, with undefeated up-and-coming welterweight Gabriel Bonfim trying his luck against grisled veteran Nicolas Dalby. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

No. 9 Jailton Almeida vs. No. 10 Derrick Lewis Heavyweight Main Event Fight Odds

FighterMoneylineWin by KO/TKO/DQWin by SubmissionWin by DecisionTotal Rounds
Jailton Almeida-500+175-135+2,000O1.5 (+250)
Derrick Lewis+365+450+3,300+2,000U1.5 (-357)

Jailton Almeida (19-2) is a scary guy. He’s got cinderblocks for fists and he’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. He’s 6’3” with a 6’7” reach. He’s won 14 straight fights. He hasn’t lost in nearly six years. All 19 of his wins have come by way of finish. Of course Dana White and company had to put a guy with a resume like that in the octagon with the Black Beast.

Almeida’s opponent will be the man with the most knockouts in UFC history (14), UFC legend Derrick Lewis (27-11, 1 NC). Lewis isn’t nearly as well-rounded as Almeida, having won just one fight by submission during his illustrious career, and at nearly 39, he’s fighting again just four months after his last fight, a 33-second knockout win.

The two men have combined for 46 professional MMA wins, and only four of those have come via the judges' scorecards. In that same vein, only three of their combined 10 losses have come by points as well, which means one thing: this one’s not going the full 15. In fact, there are very short -227 odds for the fight ending in the first round.

Lewis seemingly doesn’t have much of a chance here unless he can land that one lucky sleeper, so we’re looking at Almeida props here, because there’s no way we’re betting on a -500 moneyline. Even Almeida to finish Lewis in the first round is still pretty chalky at -185 odds. He has won four of his five UFC fights in the first frame, so that’s not the worst bet in the world despite its lack of value.

His -135 odds to win by submission offer the most value as Almeida has won three of his last four and six of his last eight by way of submission, but the fact that the Brazilian owns a daunting 114-2 significant strike advantage so far in the UFC means he could get prideful and try to win in Lewis’ world. However, even if he does so and drops Lewis, Almeida’s been known to seal the deal by taking his opponent’s back rather than raining down ground and pound, though he has done the latter too.

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby Women’s Flyweight Co-Main Event Fight Odds

FighterMoneylineWin by KO/TKO/DQWin by SubmissionWin by DecisionTotal Rounds
Gabriel Bonfim-625+225-105+325O1.5 (+100)
Nicolas Dalby+435+1,400+2,800+750U1.5 (-130)

Considering these final two fights of the night, this could be one of the quickest main cards in recent UFC history. It would be a shock if Lewis-Almeida lasted more than six or seven minutes, but if this one gets past three minutes it will be a surprise. Danish scrapper Nicolas Dalby (22-4-1, 1 NC) is no slouch, but his opponent, 26-year-old phenom Gabriel Bonfim (15-0), seems destined for greatness.

The man they call Marretinha (Little Hammer) brought his unblemished record to Dana White’s Contender Series and proceeded to prove his worth with a first-round submission win in just over four minutes. In his UFC debut, it took him just under a minute to get a tap out. In his last fight, Trevin Giles waved the white flag in 79 seconds.

While Dalby has won four of his last five and has never been finished, he’s not being set up for success here. Bonfim is 12 years his junior and the speed of the young Brazilian will be too much for him to handle. There are a lot of intriguing Bonfim props to consider here.

Bonfim has won 12 of his 15 fights by submission, and that prop sits at very reasonable -105 odds. Five of his last six wins have come in the first round, and that one is offering even better +100 odds. But if you’re looking for best value, take his +175 odds to win in the first round via submission, which he has done in five of his last six. The fight to go under 1.5 rounds at -130 wouldn’t be a bad shout here either.

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.