UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Main Event Betting Predictions & Odds

The UFC brought us a pretty fun card in Houston last week. It was chock full of exciting finishes as well as unexpected upsets. Can UFC Mexico in Mexico City this weekend follow suit? It would be impressive.

The main card for UFC Fight Night 268 at Arena CDMX in the nation’s capital has three good fights at the top of the schedule, but after that, it gets dire. Lots of Mexican fighters duelling in front of their home crowd should make up for the lack of star power and name recognition.

However, like we said, the top of the main card is pretty solid, and it’s headlined with an intriguing flyweight battle. Betting sites have former division champ Brandon Moreno, now the No. 6 contender, coming in as the favorite against division newcomer Lone’er Kavanagh, who takes the fight on three week’s notice. Check out our betting analysis and best bet for the main event at UFC Mexico this Saturday!

UFC Mexico (Fight Night 268): Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Picks & Odds - February 28

All odds provided by Betway.

Tale of the Tape:

Category	Sean Strickland	Anthony Hernandez
Height	5’7” (1.70 m)	5’6” (1.68 m)
Weight	125 lbs (57 kg)	126 lbs (57 kg)
Reach	70” (178 cm)	67” (170 cm)
Age	32	26
Nickname	“The Assassin Baby”	N/A
Fighting Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed/Minute	3.89 (44 % accuracy)	4.29 (49 % accuracy)
Strikes Absorbed/Minute	3.62 (60 % defense)	3.69 (58 % defense)
Takedown Average	1.47 (44 % accuracy)	1.79 (50 % accuracy)
Takedown Defense	64 %	88 %
Current Ranking	No. 6	N/A
Fighting Out Of	Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico	London, United Kingdom

Fight Analysis & Prediction

No. 6 Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Ranked Flyweight Bout Betting Odds

Fighter	Moneyline	Spread	Rounds	Win by Decision	Win by KO/TKO/DQ	Win by Submission	Go the Distance
Brandon Moreno	-210	-5.5 (+100)	O4.5 (-130)	+175	+450	+325	Yes (-115)
Lone’er Kavanagh	+175	+5.5 (-130)	U4.5 (+100)	+350	+500	+2,000	No (-115)

There aren’t many fighters that are as beloved by neutral UFC fans as Brandon Moreno (23-9-2). The “Assassin Baby” pretty much always delivers the goods, and we see no reason to think this fight is going to be different. He’s fighting on a relatively short turnaround being that he fought in early December, but he’s also got a lot of advantages here.

In that last scrap in December, Moreno was stopped by Tatsuro Taira, though if you asked him he’d say the stoppage was premature. Before that he’d taken two decisions over two guys that are still in the top 11. That experience against the top flyweights in the division is just one of the reasons Moreno has the edge over Lone’er Kavanagh (9-1).

The Brit is actually kind of small even for a flyweight, giving Moreno another advantage in size on top of that experience we mentioned. Kavanagh is an exciting young prospect, but we believe this is one step up one fight too soon. With No. 8 flyweight Asu Almabayev bowing out of this matchup with Moreno early in February, Kavanagh jumped at the chance at a headlining fight.

We also like the fact that Moreno is fighting at home in Mexico for this one. He’s fought there thrice for the UFC previously, going a very even 1-1-1. The most recent one, which came last year, was a win. We think Moreno repeats that feat here in Mexico City again.

He is the better and more technical striker, but he also lives for these moments in the spotlight. And that spotlight might just be a little too bright for Kavanagh at this stage of his career.

Best Bet: Brandon Moreno Moneyline (-210)