College Football Playoff: Texas Tech vs Oregon Odds, Analysis, & Picks

A spot in the College Football Playoff's last four is on the line on Thursday as Texas Tech and Oregon clash in the Orange Bowl. The kickoff is scheduled for 12 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. This is also the CFP quarterfinals, with the winner set to face either Alabama or Indiana. The Red Raiders are the No. 4 seed in this tournament and finished their regular season with a big win over BYU. As for the Ducks – seeded No. 5 – they beat James Madison in the first round of the Playoff. Read on for the Texas Tech vs Oregon picks.

Odds provided by TonyBet.

Texas Tech vs Oregon Odds

The Ducks head into this one as a -139 moneyline favorite at online betting sportsbooks. They’re also laying 2.5 points on the spread. Texas Tech returns at +104 odds, while the total is set relatively high at 51.5 points.

Oregon is a perfect 3-0 against the Red Raiders, but their last matchup was in 2023. A lot has changed for Texas Tech, in particular, since then.

Texas Tech vs Oregon Analysis

It’s been a while since the Red Raiders were a legitimately relevant program in college football, but 2025 served as a turnaround season for this program. Joey McGuire led his team to a 12-1 record, and that included finishing the regular season with six straight victories. Texas Tech finished atop the Big 12 and ultimately won the title, beating BYU in the Big 12 Championship on December 6.

This is a very fundamentally sound team. Offensively, they’re second in the country in points (42.5) and fourth in total yards (480.3). QB Behren Morton had a very nice campaign, completing 67% of his passes for 2,643 yards and 22 touchdowns against just four picks. He’s also got lots of weapons, such as Reggie Virgil, Caleb Douglas, and Cameron Dickey. Defensively, Texas Tech allowed just 10.9 PPG and ranks second in fewest yards allowed. But, Oregon will be their most difficult test yet on both sides of the ball.

The Ducks have been a regular fixture in the CFP over the years, even before it expanded to 12 teams. Dan Lanning led Oregon to a 12-1 record as well in ‘25, and they haven’t lost a game since October 11 to Indiana – the team they could very well meet in the CFP semis. After that defeat, the Ducks ran off seven wins in a row, beating the likes of Wisconsin, USC, and Washington, among others.

Dante Moore is the game-changer for Oregon. In his first season as QB1 in Eugene, Moore has proven to be one of the most dynamic signal-callers in the country. He’s completed over 70% of his passes for 28 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. Texas Tech’s defense tends to thrive againt one-dimensional offenses, but that’s far from what the Ducks are. Just like their quarterfinal opponents, Oregon ranks top-10 in the NCAA in most offensive and defensive categories.

Texas Tech vs Oregon Picks

We’re looking at two teams who have been utterly dominant all year. This will be Oregon’s hardest game outside of facing Indiana, while Texas Tech is ye to take on a team as complete as the Ducks. I expect an entertaining affair in Miami Gardens, but I’ll take Oregon’s experience to give them the edge.

Pick: Oregon -139/TonyBet