French Open Quarterfinals: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Odds, Analysis, & Picks

We’re down to eight players left in the 2025 French Open and Tuesday brings a must-watch clash between No. 12 Tommy Paul and No. 2 ranked Carlos Alcaraz. The match gets started at 1:30 PM PT. Paul, one of two Americans left in the tournament, beat Australia’s Alexei Popyrin in the fourth round in straight sets. As for Alcaraz, he took down Ben Shelton in a very difficult four-setter. Below, we’ll lay out the match odds, dive into some analysis, and provide betting picks.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Odds

By no surprise, Alcaraz is a heavy -1200 favorite at tennis betting sites. Paul returns at +700. There is more value in how many sets the match may go, but we’ll get into that later.

As for head-to-head, these two have met six times, with Alcaraz winning on four occasions. In fact, he’s unbeaten in the last three matches against Paul, most recently beating him in the quarterfinals of the Paris Olympics last summer.

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Analysis

Paul is a key part of the new American wave that is making its mark in world tennis, and he’s really started to find his best over the last couple of years. The 28-year-old made the fourth round of the US Open in back-to-back years and also progressed to the Wimbledon quarterfinals in 2024. His best finish to date in a Grand Slam, however, is a semifinal appearance in the 2023 Australian Open, and he’ll be hoping to get back to that stage at Roland Garros.

The New Jersey native hasn’t won a title yet this year, but he did make the semis before the French Open at the ATP Masters in Rome, eventually losing to Jannik Sinner. When it comes to this current event, Paul has had to take down several tough opponents. He faced Marton Fucsovics, Karen Khachanov, and Popyrin leading up to this point, but Fucsovics and Khachanov both took him to five sets. The win over Popyrin was a lot more convincing and will give him much-needed confidence against Alcaraz.

It’s no secret that Alcaraz is one of the most exciting players in the sport. His athleticism, shot-making, and defense make him a thrill to watch. While ‘24 wasn’t the greatest season for him, he has bounced back so far in 2025. Alcaraz already has three titles, just one shy of last year’s total. He’s 35-5 this year. The Spaniard’s road to the quarterfinals was a breeze, but Shelton, one of the better young players around, gave Alcaraz a run for his money.

The two had a wild tiebreaker to open the match, with Alcaraz winning 10-8 before he also won the second set. Shelton got one back in the third, but Alcaraz put him away in the fourth. It wasn’t an easy match for the defending French Open champion, but he dug deep to eliminate Shelton. Alcaraz is on the right track for a blockbuster final against Sinner, who is in top form and sits on the other side of the draw. Alcaraz and Sinner have developed quite a rivalry over the years.

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Picks

I have no doubt Alcaraz will come out victorious in this match. He’s kicked it up a gear in the last two rounds, and his track record against Paul is impressive. But the moneyline offers no value. I do think Paul will grind out a set, and the Spaniard will ultimately win in four.

Pick: Carlos Alcaraz 3-1 (+225)/Sports Interaction