French Open Semifinals: Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek Odds, Analysis, & Picks

The women’s French Open semifinals will bring a must-watch matchup on Thursday, June 5, as No. 1-ranked Aryna Sabalenka faces defending Roland Garros champion Iga Swiatek. The start time is 10 AM ET, and all eyes will be on this clash. Sabalenka has easily been the best player in the world over the last year, and she just beat a pair of ranked opponents in the last two rounds of this year’s second Major. As for Swiatek, who is looking for her third straight title in Paris, she took down Elina Svitolina and Elena Rybakina in the Round of 16 and quarterfinals, who are both difficult opponents. Read below for the Sabalenka vs Swiatek betting picks.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek Odds

Sabalenka is a -135 favorite at tennis betting sites. Swiatek returns at +110 odds.

These two have met a total of 12 times, with Swiatek holding an 8-4 edge in the head-to-head record. Sabalenka won their last clash, however, beating the Pole in the Cincinnati Open semifinals last year.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek Analysis

Sabalenka is truly elite and has risen from one of the top players on the Tour to the best over the last year. She’s now 39-6 in 2025 so far, most recently taking down China’s Qinwen Zheng on Tuesday in the quarterfinals. She’s already captured three titles this season and while the Belarusian has won twice at the Aussie Open and once at the US Open, she’s yet to conquer the French Open. In fact, she’s never made a final in Paris. The furthest she’s progressed in the semis, but Sabalenka will be looking to change that on Thursday.

The world No. 1 has won every match in the French Open in convincing fashion. She hasn’t lost a single set en route to the last four at the season’s second Grand Slam. Sabalenka is easily the most powerful player on the WTA Tour, but she’s not always consistent with her serve. That will be an area of focus against Swiatek.

Swiatek has established herself as the queen of the French Open with four titles in Paris. As previously mentioned, she’s searching for her third straight at the event, but she’s been handed the most difficult task imaginable. To be honest, this is a final itself given the talent on both sides. Swiatek has always looked impressive so far at Roland Garros. Rybakina, who is a solid player in her own right, gave the Pole some trouble in the fourth round.

Rybakina beat Swiatek in the first set but she stormed back to win in three sets. Swiatek then took out Svitolina in straight sets in the quarterfinals. Revenge will surely be on her mind as well after falling in straight sets in Cincinnati last summer. Swiatek’s first serve has struggled at times in this edition of the French Open and that will need to change in this match because Sabalenka will punish her.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek Picks

This is going to be a very thrilling clash. Five of Swiatek’s wins against Sabalenka have came on clay court and after all, she is chasing history here. While it will be an absolute battle, I’ll take the underdog to pull this one out and eliminate Sabalenka.

Pick: Iga Swiatek +110 /Sports Interaction