Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Mexico vs South Africa Odds
Mexico heads into this encounter as a heavy -233 moneyline favorite at World Cup betting sites. South Africa is priced at +740, while a draw is priced at +350.
While these two sides have met four times overall, just two were competitive fixtures. South Africa beat Mexico in the 2005 Gold Cup, while the 2010 clash to begin the World Cup ended 1-1.
Mexico vs South Africa Analysis
There are high expectations for El Tri heading into the event, which marks a record third time they will host the World Cup, and many expect that home atmosphere to heavily play in their favor. All of Mexicoâs group stage games take place on Mexican soil, with two matches in Mexico City and one in Guadalajara. Javier Aguirre is overseeing his third World Cup campaign with Mexico, and while this may not be the nation's most talented squad, it remains a well-balanced group with plenty of motivation.
Mexico will face Czechia and South Korea after the fixture against South Africa, and neither will be a walk in the park. RaĂșl JimĂ©nez is expected to lead the line in the tournament, and heâs one of the most reliable finishers in national team history. Santi Gimenez is also an intriguing option up top, having recently joined AC Milan. Guillermo Ochoa is in goal for one final World Cup, while Aguirre has a plethora of options in the middle of the park and at the back. Mexico is looking to progress to the quarterfinals for the first time since 1986.
Itâs been a long time coming for South Africa, who havenât appeared in the World Cup since playing host 16 years ago. Hugo Broosâ side will be looking to pull off the unthinkable and make the knockout stages, but it wonât be easy in a tough group. So far in 2026, South Africa have yet to win a game, drawing three times and tasting defeat twice. That includes a loss to Cameroon in the AFCON Round of 16 in January.
Ahead of Thursdayâs affair, Broosâ squad played to a scoreless draw with Central American outfit Nicaragua on May 29 before another stalemate over the weekend in Pachuca against Jamaica, who narrowly missed out on the World Cup. This isnât a side full of star names by any means, but theyâre always one to fight tirelessly, and their never-say-die mentality will surely be at the forefront in the tournament.
Mexico vs South Africa Injury News
Broos has concerns at left-back, with Aubrey Modiba still working his way back from injury. South Africa will also be without wingers Thapelo Morena and Mohau Nkota, who were both ruled out through injury.
Aguirre will be missing two World Cup squad members due to injury: goalkeeper Luis Ăngel MalagĂłn and midfielder Marcel Ruiz. Both injuries were significant enough to keep them out of Mexico's World Cup roster.
Mexico vs South Africa Picks
Itâs incredibly hard to look past the home advantage for Mexico, who will be playing in a hostile, loud, and electrifying Estadio Banorte. The energy at this stadium will be a significant positive for El Tri, who are in fine form, having notched three straight wins. The hosts should have no issues notching a huge three points.
However, with the moneyline offering limited value, I'm backing Mexico to win to nil. South Africaâs had issues producing the goods in the final third, and the Mexicans have been solid at the back.
Pick: Mexico to win nil (-103)/TonyBet
