MLB: Mets vs Pirates Odds, Analysis, & Picks

The New York Mets will be looking to respond on Saturday against the Pittsburgh Pirates after the Bucs hammered them 9-1 in the series opener. The first pitch for this afternoon contest is scheduled for 4:05 PM ET at PNC Park. The Mets are tied for first place in the National League East, but Friday’s loss was a disappointing one against a Pirates group that is sitting dead last in their division. It’s Paul Blackburn vs Bailey Falter on the mound for Game 2 of this series. Keep reading for the Mets vs Pirates betting picks.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Mets vs Pirates Odds

The Mets are a heavy -160 road favorite for Saturday’s clash, while the Pirates return as a +135 underdog at MLB betting sites.

Mets vs Pirates Analysis

The Mets made a mammoth move to sign Juan Soto in the offseason, and he’s finally coming alive, hitting .325 in June with 10 homers. He’s now up to 20 long balls on the year. But, even without consistent production from their superstar throughout the campaign, New York is looking like a contender. Carlos Mendoza’s ball club is tied for top spot in the NL East with the Philadelphia Phillies and will definitely be a playoff contender once October rolls around. They’ve just received some pitching reinforcements but the Mets also just lost Griffin Canning to an Achilles injury. That’s a brutal blow to their rotation.

NY sends Blackburn to the bump on Saturday and he hasn’t exactly had a lot of success in 2025. The right-hander is 0-2 in five appearances (three starts) with a 6.62 ERA. Opponents are hitting .329 off Blackburn, which is a concerning sign for this outing. He’s allowed three earned runs in back-to-back starts, both against the Atlanta Braves. Blackburn’s ERA lowers to 4.26 on the road.

The Pirates are once again a nightmare. They have a 33-50 record, sitting 16 games out of first place in the National League Central. While Paul Skenes isn’t going to be traded, it’s hard to imagine him sticking around for the long haul when Pittsburgh is this bad. On a more positive note, the Bucs got an impressive outing out of Mitch Keller on Friday evening. The right-hander held the powerful Mets lineup to just one earned run across five innings of work. That was Keller’s first win since March. Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen led the offense with two hits apiece as they put up nine runs.

The Bucs will hand Bailey Falter the ball on Saturday. He’s actually having a respectable season, collecting a 3.59 ERA and 6-3 record across 16 starts. Falter has struck out 51 hitters in 85.1 innings while walking 31. He’s struggled as of late however, surrendering six earned runs over his previous two outings. New York has swung it well against Falter, batting .272 in 81 at-bats. He’s really thrown the ball well at home though, posting a 3.18 ERA. We’ll see if the left-hander can keep the Mets at bay here.

Mets vs Pirates Picks

Although Falter is having success this year, I don’t see the Mets disappearing offensively again. Expect New York to show up and swing the bats at a high level. Take the visitors on the moneyline to grab a bounce back win in Saturday’s matchup.

Pick: Mets -160 /Sports Interaction