MLB: Padres vs Phillies Odds, Analysis, & Picks

Two of the top teams in the National League begin a three-game set on Monday, June 30, as the San Diego Padres visit the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:30 PM ET. San Diego will be looking to bounce back after dropping two of three to the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend, including a 3-2 loss in the finale on Sunday. As for the Phils, they won two out of three against their divisional rivals, the Atlanta Braves. This is the beginning of a six-game home set for them. Read below for the Padres vs Phillies betting picks.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Padres vs Phillies Odds

The Phillies are a heavy -223 favorite for the series opener, while the Padres return as a +180 underdog at MLB betting sites.

This is their first meeting in 2025, but last season, the Phils went 6-1 against the Padres.

Padres vs Phillies Analysis

It’s always going to be difficult to beat out the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West crown, but the Padres are staying competitive. They’re in second place in the division with a 45-38 record, sitting seven games back of the Dodgers, who are in first place. But, San Diego must keep their foot on the gas pedal, because the newly improved San Francisco Giants are right on their heels. The Arizona Diamondbacks cannot be counted out, either.

The Padres are 6-4 in their last 10 contests and will hand Matt Waldron the ball in the opener, who has yet to pitch this year due to injury. Last year, Waldron made 26 starts for San Diego, compiling a 7-11 record and 4.91 ERA. He has the tendency to get hit around at times, but Waldron will likely have a shorter outing here since it’s his season debut. The Phillies have swung it well against him though, batting .297 across 37 at-bats.

The Phillies may be without Bryce Harper, but they’re still sitting at the top of the NL East, despite not playing their best baseball as of late. Rob Thomson’s group has a 49-35 record and remains just 1.5 games ahead of the New York Mets. This is a fundamentally sound ball club on both sides of the ball, ranking 10th in runs, fifth in hits, fifth in average, and fourth in OBP. They’re also 11th in team ERA. Trea Turner has been their best hitter, while Zack Wheeler is their best starter, and he takes the hill on Monday.

The veteran is 7-3 in 16 starts with a stellar 2.46 ERA. He’s struck out 126 hitters in only 99 innings of work while walking just 25. Wheeler hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in four consecutive outings and he dominated the Houston Astros last time out, giving up just one earned across six frames. He’s even better at home, posting a 2.39 ERA and holding opponents to a  .177 average. San Diego is batting .163 against Wheeler across 92 at-bats.

Padres vs Phillies Picks

When Wheeler is on the bump, I’ll never bet against him. He is one of the best in the game and typically puts his best foot forward every fifth day. I’ll take the Philies to continue their winning ways against the Padres. Lock in the moneyline.

Pick: Phillies -223/Sports Interaction