NCAAB March Madness Final Four Betting Preview

Alex Murray
By: Alex Murray
05 Apr 24
March Madness
News - NCAA
NCAAB March Madness Final Four Betting Preview

March Madness 2024 hasn’t had quite as many upsets as usual, but we certainly have a Cinderella team that’s still alive in No. 11 NC State. Along with the Wolfpack, Purdue, UConn, and Alabama will converge on State Farm Arena in Phoenix for the Final Four. The fast-paced Alabama offense will look to stop the dominance of UConn, while Zach Edey and Purdue will look to end NC State’s underdog story while taking one step closer in their redemption arc.

Highlights

  • NC State has two big fellas to make Zach Edey’s life miserable in Phoenix
  • The Wolfpack have beaten quality competition, and should easily cover the large spread
  • UConn will continue its ridiculously dominant run with another double-digit win

NCAAB March Madness Final Four - April 5

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

NCAAB MARCH MADNESS 2024 FINAL FOUR PREDICTIONS

No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 11 North Carolina State - 6:09PM

SchoolMoneylineSpreadTotal
Purdue-455-9.5 (+100)O145.5 (-115)
NC State+350+9.5 (-120)U145.5 (-105)

Purdue has really ridden 7’4” center Zach Edey in this tournament, as the senior has put up 30.0 points and 16.3 rebounds a game, including a 21-rebound game in the opening round and a 40-ball in the Elite Eight against Tennessee. He may not be a top NBA prospect, but the big guy can certainly dominate on a college hoops court.

Unfortunately, he has to deal with the pluckiest of plucky underdogs in the Final Four. NC State has played and beaten a No. 6 seed, a No. 2 seed, and a No. 4 seed in this tourney, beating those opponents by an average of 11.3 points to boot. In fact, their closest game in this tournament was a six-point win over the No. 14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies.

The Wolfpack are actually uniquely qualified to stop the Edey show in Phoenix: 6’9”, 275-pound big man D.J. Burns is in the conversation for player of the tournament, and that big frame will make it tough for Edey to get comfortable in the post. If NC State needs length against Edey, they can also go to lanky 6’10” forward Mohamed Diarra, who’s been a double-double machine of late.

A big reason for Edey’s lack of attention in NBA circles is because of the belief that he can’t get it done when he has to play against other big boys. This will be his biggest test in that regard, and we’re not sure he’ll pass with flying colors.

NC State has been closing down the three point lane of late, holding opponents to under 29 percent from three-point land since the start of the ACC tourney. Purdue is a great three-point shooting team, but they don’t take a lot of them, and everyone apart from Edey really struggled against the Volunteers, with non-Edey players combining to shoot 34.4 in the Elite Eight.

Kevin Keatts' team is on a nine-game winning streak during which they’ve beat Duke twice, Marquette, and North Carolina. These guys are not flukes, and they can defend in the post and take good care of the basketball, limiting turnovers and easy points for the Boilermakers.

NC State’s +350 moneyline odds are a decent shout, but if you wanna play it safe, the Wolfpack’s disrespectful spread feels like a great wager. But make sure you hop on it ASAP, as the +100 odds on Purdue’s -9.5 spread at most betting sites suggest that the number is about to go down.

Best Bet: NC State to cover +9.5 point spread (-120)

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 4 Alabama - 8:49PM

SchoolMoneylineSpreadTotal
UConn-769-11.5 (-110)O160.5 (-110)
Alabama+525+11.5 (-110)U160.5 (-110)

What can you really say about the UConn Huskies at this point? They almost won by 40 in the first round, they won by 17 in the second, 30 in the Sweet 16, and 25 in the Elite Eight. They also famously won the tournament last year while taking each of their games by double digits. That’s 10 straight tournament games where their opponents haven’t even had a chance.

While Alabama’s run to the Final Four has been exceptionally entertaining thanks to their top-ranked offense and pace, they play zero defense whatsoever, instead attempting to out-shoot and out-score their opponents.

UConn’s offense can score with any team in the nation. They know how to get to the line, they’re solid from deep, and they’re reliable around the rim. They’ve scored 80+ against many fast-paced teams with much better defensive discipline than the Tide, such as UNC, and while the 11.5 spread being offered up by most safe betting sites is not generally a number we like to take, it almost seems low for this Huskies team.

Best Bet: UConn to cover -11.5 point spread (-110)

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.