NFL 2026 AFC Conference Champion Way Too Early Betting Odds & Picks

The AFC has had a good run this century, with the Patriots and Chiefs dynasties resulting in nine Super Bowls themselves since 2001. However, with K.C. and Patrick Mahomes regressing significantly over the last two years, it’s been all NFC over the last two Super Bowls. The last two Super Bowls were won by the NFC participant 18 and 16 points.

In 2026, the AFC field will look to end that trend. There are a lot of exciting teams that had various issues last year that kept them from competing. But they’ll be back in 2026. And of course, Josh Allen and the Bills, the current favorites to win the AFC in 2026, are always in the mix. So, who will represent the AFC in Super Bowl 61 as they look to win their first title since 2023? Check out the NFL betting odds and favorites as well as our best bet and dark horse candidate!

NFL 2026 AFC Conference Champion Way Too Early Betting Odds & Picks

All betting odds provided by Betway

The Favorite: Buffalo Bills (+500)

We’re starting to see a pattern here with Josh Allen and the Bills sitting at or near the top of nearly all major preseason odds tables. They were unable to win their division last year and fell short in a heartbreaker in the Divisional Round last year as they went 12-5. They are bringing back nearly all of their major contributors, and with Joe Brady ascending to the head coach spot, a fresh perspective could help them get over that hump. However, +500 on a bet made in February is not nearly enough value, so we look elsewhere.

Our Best Bet: Denver Broncos (+900)

To be fair, it was a weak AFC field last year. But even still, the Broncos impressed against a lot of tough teams during the regular season. And they took down the Bills in the Divisional Round. Heck, they nearly made the Super Bowl on the back of Jarrett Stidham in the AFC Championship. With Bo Nix back to full strength, that elite defense returning most of its stars, and Denver’s young skill players continuing to improve, Sean Payton looks like he’s on the cusp of another Super Bowl formula.

Dark Horse Candidate: Pittsburgh Steelers (+2,800)

Okay, hear me out. When you’re taking a long shot bet this far out from the start of the season, you want to bet on a team that still has some major decisions to make. Depending on how those decisions swing, this could turn out to be an awful or an excellent pick. That’s what a dart throw like this is all about. And the Steelers, apart from QB, have a Super Bowl-caliber roster.

A veteran, opportunistic defense that has consistently turned the ball over and sacked the quarterback, underrated skill position players, a quickly improving o-line, and a brand new coaching staff to replace the stale group that just left, no offense to Mike Tomlin. Depending on what they do at QB (re-sign Rodgers, trade up and draft a top rookie, sign a free agent, trade for a disgruntled star), this could turn out to be a very prescient choice. Though if they bring back Rodgers, start youngster Will Howard, or draft a rookie and play him, you can throw this ticket in the trash.