Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 9

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN · FOX

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Indianapolis has lost four straight to fall to 2-6, with last week's blowout loss in Jacksonville the low point of the stretch. The Cowboys are just as uneven at 3-5, falling in overtime to Arizona last week, but arrive with a far more productive offence than the Colts have shown all season. That gap is what shapes Sunday's NFL picks Week 9 line at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Dallas Cowboys -5.5: -116

I'm backing Dallas Cowboys -5.5 at -116 on Bet365. The Colts' offence is averaging just 20.1 ppg this season, the weaker unit here by a wide margin, and the shortfall has worsened during Indianapolis's four-game skid. The Cowboys, by contrast, have reached at least 30 points in three of their last five games.I think the market is undervaluing just how far the Colts' offence has regressed: a unit this inconsistent is not built to keep Sunday's game inside a single score. While the Cowboys have issues the Colts only scored seven points in their last game and rank 26th in scoring and 30th in points allowed. 

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The reeling Colts side

Indy has lost four straight and sits 2-6 near the basement of the AFC South. Daniel Jones' offence was held in check in last week's 42-7 loss at Jacksonville, the Colts' worst showing of the year, and Indianapolis's defence is allowing 27.8 ppg this season. Things are so bad for the Colts that star RB Jonathan Taylor may be on the trading block. Indianapolis is a home underdog, with good reason, but scoring points has been the season-long problem, and that undercuts any case for the Colts to be the pick. 

The streaky Cowboys side

Dallas is 3-5 and streaky, with a 38-21 win at Philadelphia sandwiched between  a 33-30 overtime loss to Arizona last week and a loss at Green Bay the week before. The Cowboys' offence is averaging 27.4 ppg, good for seventh in the league,the better scoring team in this game, while their defence has conceded 26.6 ppg this season. Dak Prescott and the pass attack should have a field day against a Colts team that gave up 42 points last week. 

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Cowboys Moneyline	Under 51.5 points
-270	-110
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Dallas's -270 moneyline on Bet365 implies a 73% raw win probability, which settles to 70% once the vig is removed using the Colts' +215 price. My own number sits at 69% for Dallas, close enough that I think the market has this one right on the moneyline. Where I see the real value is in the margin: an Indianapolis offence that has not topped 20 points in three of its last four games is the reason I like the Dallas spread and the Under more than the straight-up winner with the moneyline. 

Indianapolis Colts: Last 5 Games

Dallas Cowboys: Last 5 Games

I'm calling this one 30-17 for the Cowboys. The Colts have allowed at least 26 points in three of their last five games, and nothing about this defence suggests that will change facing Prescott and company. A 13-point margin easily clears the 5.5 spread, and the 47-point combined score stays under Sunday's 51.5 total, with Indy unlikely to have enough scoring to push this one over.