New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 10

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ · CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Buffalo heads into MetLife Stadium at 7-1 off a 23-6 win at Minnesota, while New York has lost five of its last six games. That record gap already drives this week's NFL picks for this AFC East meeting, and it shapes the numbers below.

Buffalo Bills -7.5: -111

I'm backing the Bills to cover the 7.5-point spread on the road. Buffalo is averaging 32 ppg this season, and New York's offence is only managing only 20.2 ppg, the weaker side of a lopsided matchup on paper and in the results column. I don't need a hidden angle here, just the form both teams have already put on tape this season where the Bills are a legit Super Bowl contender while the Jets are on the road to another season well below .500.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The New York side

New York sits at 2-7, with its only two wins coming against Tennessee in Week 1 and Cleveland in Week 5, and is coming off a 35-12 loss at Kansas City in which Geno Smith went 18-of-32 for 165 yards and was sacked five times. New York's defence has allowed 24.8 ppg this season, and against an offence scoring at Buffalo's pace, that gap is why I don't see a short-score outcome here. 

The Buffalo side

Buffalo is 7-1, with its only loss a 29-26 result against New England in Week 4, and has won four straight since, including a combined 59-16 result over Baltimore and Minnesota the last two weeks. Josh Allen is an MVP candidate and while the offense is humming and the defence has had its issues it played well last week in the win over the Vikings. Yet another reason the one-loss Bills are the pick over a two-win Jets’ squad.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Bills -7.5	Bills Moneyline
-111	-450
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Sports Interaction's moneyline of Bills -450 and Jets +340 implies a de-vigged win probability of about 78% for Buffalo against 22% for New York. My own number lands at 76-24, a small gap, so my conviction rests on the matchup itself more than the exact price: a top scoring Buffalo offence against a leaky New York defence is a bad combination for the Jets. In an AFC East matchup between two teams heading in different directions I like the Bills to cover and the Under. 

I predict Buffalo wins this one 30-16 but under the total rather than in a high-scoring affair. Allen's offence has scored at least 23 in every game this season, and New York's defence has given up a total of 73 points in their last two games. My call is the Bills to cover the 7.5 points, with the 46 combined points I'm forecasting landing under Bet365's 50.5 total and Sports Interaction's 51 total.