Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 9

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO · CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Kansas City opens as a 9.5-point home favourite against a Jets team under first-year starter Geno Smith, acquired in a March trade from Las Vegas. The Chiefs have dropped back-to-back road games to Seattle and Denver, scoring just 3 and 24 points, while New York's defence has regressed after a good start and gave up 38 points in their last game. That gap shapes the NFL prediction odds for Sunday at Arrowhead, even with Kansas City not looking its best in the last two games.

Kansas City Chiefs -9.5: -112

I'm backing Kansas City to cover at home. The Chiefs have scored at least 22 points in five of their last six games, and they draw a Jets defence that has given up an average of 30.7 ppg in their three-game skid. New York is 2-6 and has lost four of its last five. I think the market is still weighing Kansas City's 3-20 loss at Seattle two weeks back too heavily against a Jets’ defence that has struggled in the last three games. At Arrowhead, I expect Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offence to get the job done. 

Patrick Mahomes Over 249.5 Passing Yards: +86

Mahomes has been up and down, throwing for 272 yards against the Chargers, just 165 in a blowout loss at Seattle, then bouncing back with 321 against Denver last week. New York allows a 65.2% completion rate, the softer pass defence of the two sides here, and that trend plus his last outing both support him passing for over 249.5 yards.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Kansas City side

Kansas City is 5-2, averaging 23.9 ppg while allowing 18.7 ppg, both marks skewed by two straight road losses. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a 321-yard, three-touchdown game at Denver but his team still lost. The Chiefs convert red zone trips at a 57.6% clip, and New York's defence has allowed scores on 64.7% of opponent trips, the widest mismatch in this game. Back home after consecutive road trips, that red zone gap is Kansas City's big advantage in this AFC clash. 

The New York side

New York is 2-6 after a 38-33 loss at Las Vegas in their last game. They are averaging 21.3 ppg but allowing 23.5 ppg and their D has been much worse in their three-game skid. Geno Smith has completed 70% of his passes this season, with Garrett Wilson his top target. The Jets' offence runs at 0.297 points a play, but a defence giving up 0.466 points a play has kept New York from closing out winnable games, which is why covering 9.5 points on the road is a tall task facing Mahomes and company. 

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Over 47.5 points	Chiefs Moneyline
-110	-500
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Kansas City's -526 moneyline implies an 84% win probability before the vig; devigged, that settles at 80% for the Chiefs against 20% for the Jets. My own number sits close, at 81% to 19%, since the market looks about right on the straight-up outcome. My main view is on the margin: Kansas City's red zone efficiency and New York's defensive issues point to a double-digit win for the home team. 

Last 5 Games – Kansas City Chiefs

Last 5 Games – New York Jets

I'm calling for Kansas City to win 34-20. New York's offence has scored at least 25 points in three of its last four games, enough to put points on the board against a Chiefs defence that has given up 20-plus in back-to-back weeks. At home the Chiefs will get back on track facing a fading Jets team and the 14-point margin clears the 9.5 spread, and the combined 54 points sail over the 47.5 total.