Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 6

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI · NBC

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Dallas arrives at Lambeau Field losing two of their last three games and in their last game lost at home to a Buccaneers’ team that came in winless and was playing their backup QB, who is an undrafted rookie. The Packers have won two in a row and they are coming off the best game of their season in a 31-7 rout over the Chicago Bears. Even so, America’s Team comes into this road game as only a slight underdog.

Green Bay Packers -1.5: -109

I like Green Bay -1.5 here. Dallas's defence ranks near the bottom of the league in yards allowed, a clear matchup edge for Green Bay's own top-10 unit at home. Jordan Love played well in the last game and the Packers’ form and that of Dallas make me lean towards Green Bay. 

CeeDee Lamb Over 82.5 Receiving Yards: -115

Lamb had topped this number in three straight games before only being held to nine yards last week in the Tampa Bay loss. RB Javonte Williams is averaging just 3.7 yards a carry, which keeps Lamb as Prescott's clear top target to move the chains.  At -115 on Sports Interaction, the three-game sample still favours the Over despite the dip last week.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Green Bay side

Jordan Love leads a Green Bay offence ranked just 24th in scoring at 20.8 points a game, but went for 31 points last week. Christian Watson is the top WR with 474 yards and 6 touchdowns on 26 catches, and MarShawn Lloyd has handled the early-down work with Josh Jacobs still sidelined by his August commissioner exempt list placement. Edgerrin Cooper leads the team with 3.0 sacks, and an 8th-ranked defence in yards allowed is the main reason I like Green Bay to win and cover.  Micah Parsons remains on the Reserve/PUP list, and is out for this game. 

The Dallas side

Dak Prescott has thrown to CeeDee Lamb more than anyone else on the roster, with Lamb already at 507 yards through five games. Dallas's offence ranks 7th in scoring at 27.6 ppg and converts 49.2% of third downs, but the defence has been the problem, allowing 27.2 ppg and 395 yards a game, 31st in the league. Dallas enters on a rough stretch, losing two of its last three, including a 16-24 defeat to Tampa Bay in Week 5, a game I broke down in last week's Cowboys tip. That gap between offence and defence is why both picks make sense to me.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Green Bay Packers Moneyline	Over 53 Total Points
-120	-112
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Green Bay's -120 moneyline on Bet365 implies a de-vigged win probability of 52% against 48% for Dallas. My own number sits higher, around 57%, because that price doesn't fully reflect the defensive mismatch already outlined above. I think the market is undervaluing how much that edge favours Green Bay at home.

I'm backing Green Bay to win a higher-scoring game than the posted total suggests. Dallas is giving up points in bunches, 30 or more in two of its last three games, while Green Bay just put up 31 points on Chicago. Jordan Love should have time to work behind Green Bay's line against a defence already stretched thin. My call is Green Bay 30, Dallas 24, a result that clears the total and makes the short spread an easy cover.