Las Vegas Raiders vs Buffalo Bills: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 6

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV · CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Buffalo's offence leads the NFL at 32.8 ppg, but its defence ranks 28th at 28.2 ppg allowed, and that gap sits at the centre of this Week 6 trip to Las Vegas. The Raiders are 3-2 losing their last two games and they were embarrassed in their last game losing on the road to the New England Patriots 45-17 where they gave up over 500 yards.

Buffalo Bills -5.5: -105

I'm backing Buffalo -5.5. The Bills have not been held under 24 points in any game this season, and Las Vegas is allowing 25.8 ppg, 22nd in the league. A defence that has already given up 45 points in a game this season is the matchup I keep coming back to against the NFL's highest-scoring offence, and that's the main storyline running through this week's NFL predictions.

Josh Allen Over 250 Passing Yards: +100

Allen cleared 250 passing yards against New England two weeks ago but fell to 210 last week against the Rams, when he leaned on his legs for 121 rushing yards instead. Las Vegas just gave up 45 points to the Patriots and were torched through the air, which is why Allen will follow that blueprint. At plus money, I like the value of the over.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Las Vegas side

Kirk Cousins has started all five games for Las Vegas and leads an offence averaging 26.4 ppg, ninth in the league, but the Raiders defence remains the issue at 25.8 ppg allowed. Ashton Jeanty was held to 27 yards on 10 carries last week and while the Raiders rank a legit eighth in the league in passing yards per game they only rank 28th in rushing yards per game. Cousins still threw for 243 yards and a touchdown without an interception in the New England loss, so the passing game is there, but the lack of a run game and a defence that has allowed at least 27 points in three of five games is why I don't trust Las Vegas to keep pace with Buffalo.

The Buffalo side

Buffalo is 4-1 and carries the NFL's highest-scoring offence behind Josh Allen, who has thrown for 253 and 210 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions over his last two starts and added 121 rushing yards in last week's overtime win over the Rams. That the league's top-scoring offence still needed overtime says as much about Buffalo's defence, which is allowing 28.2 ppg, as it does about the opponent. Facing a Raiders offence averaging 26.4 ppg, the Buffalo defence may be tested again.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Buffalo Bills Spread -5.5	Buffalo Bills Moneyline
-105	-235
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Bet365's -244 price on Buffalo implies a de-vigged win probability of 68% against 32% for Las Vegas. My own number sits a little higher, 71% to 29%, a modest three-point edge built on one fact: Las Vegas's defence ranks 22nd in the league while Buffalo's offence ranks first. I think the market is pricing this as a competitive road favourite spot, as both teams have solid offences but issues on the defensive side of the ball. 

I'm calling Buffalo 31, Las Vegas 24. Allen gets back over 250 passing yards, Buffalo's offence hasn't been held under 24 points all season, and Las Vegas has allowed at least 27 points in three of its five games. The Raiders move the ball behind Cousins and keep this game from a blowout, but their defence will let them down again. My call is Buffalo -5.5, with the total going Over.