Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 9

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA · CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Los Angeles Chargers are 0-7 when the Houston Texans visit SoFi Stadium. Houston is only 2-5, but the Texans arrive with a healthier roster and more rest than a Chargers team that just lost a key defensive starter for the season. This Week 9 matchup carries one of the clearer gaps among NFL picks for this week, and I think the spread still undersells it.

Houston Texans -4.5: -115

I'm backing Houston Texans -4.5 on Bet365. Houston's offence has the clear statistical edge over a team averaging barely half as many points a game, and Los Angeles has been held to single digits twice in its last three games. I think the market undervalues just how lopsided this gap is: a two-win team getting extra rest against the league's worst offence shouldn't be laying only 4.5 points, and I expect Houston to win and cover.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The winless side

The Chargers dropped  a 24-9 loss to the Rams last week, extending its losing streak to seven games to open the season. Justin Herbert remains the starter, but the offence around him averages a league-worst 14.1 points a game and hasn't topped 23 points in any game this season. The defence now has to replace safety Derwin James Jr., lost for the year, and while the Chargers' pass coverage ranks 1st in the NFL at 207.7 yards allowed a game, the unit still gives up 25.0 points a game, 20th in the league. Herbert has looked like a shell of himself and the team has holes all over the place. 

The well-rested side

Houston is 2-5 after a 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants, but the Texans are rested coming off a bye. C.J. Stroud leads an offence that ranks 12th in the league at 23.6 ppg, comfortably ahead of a shorter-handed Chargers defence. Houston's own defence ranks 18th, allowing 24.3 ppg, a number that looks far stronger next to the NFL's lowest-scoring attack. That extra week off against a banged-up opponent is the scheduling edge that makes me comfortable laying the points here.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Texans -4.5	Texans Moneyline
-115	-225
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Houston opened as the clear favourite on both Canadian sportsbooks, and the numbers back it up. The de-vigged market has Houston at 67% to win, and I put that figure at 70%, mostly because the Chargers are thin in the secondary and the team simply cannot score consistently. Even on the road and with two wins Houston is the pick here. 

Los Angeles Chargers - Last 5 Games

Houston Texans - Last 5 Games

I'm calling this one 24-10 for Houston. Herbert has thrown more interceptions (8) than TD passes (5) this season, a problem Houston's defence, back at full strength off the bye, should be able to exploit. That margin clears the 4.5 spread comfortably and keeps the total under the 40.5 line Bet365 has posted. Houston should control this game from the get go facing a reeling Chargers squad.