We’ve had a pretty darn good season when it comes to NFL player prop picks, and Week 18 sealed it, as we hit all four of our picks once again, bringing our season-long tally to 34-26 with three clean sweeps. Once again, we won’t be looking at moneyline or spread odds, but we’ll be weighing all the best player props from the top NFL betting sites and betting apps.
NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Best Player Props NFL Betting Odds
- Isiah Pacheco and Najee Harris will take advantage of the cold weather to have big days
- C.J. Stroud will struggle against the Browns’ elite pass defense
- The Sun God will torment the Rams’ struggling secondary on Sunday
NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Player Props Betting Odds - January 13 - January 15
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Isiah Pacheco (MIN) - Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110) vs. Miami Dolphins (Saturday)
If we were dealing with regular, run-of-the-mill Kansas City weather, we probably wouldn’t touch this one, but considering that it’s going to be zero with a -30 wind chill, we can expect both sides to rely on their respective running games.
While the Dolphins’ ground game led by burners Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane is built around the speed of their backs, which will be limited by the playing conditions, Isiah Pacheco and the Chiefs’ rush attack is all about smash mouth football.
Pacheco is a bowling ball of a running back who runs like he’s chasing down a thief, and this kind of weather is exactly the type of situation where a runner like that will thrive. The Dolphins have historically struggled in cold weather, losing their last 10 straight in temperatures under 40 at kickoff, which means the game script is likely to be leaning in Pacheco’s favor. He should be seeing a ton of carries, which will make hitting the over here a piece of cake.
C.J. Stroud (HOU) - Over 0.5 Interceptions (-105) vs. Cleveland Browns (Saturday)
We know, we know, C.J. Stroud never throws picks. He’s only thrown five all year, but this is a situation where he might be in over his head. The Texans have no business even being here with their rookie QB and HC, and they’re not likely to stay at the dance for long.
Cleveland not only has the stingiest pass defense, allowing just under 165 yards per game through the air, but they’ve also been an extremely opportunistic unit as well. They’re tied for third in the league with 18 interceptions on the year, and it’s become exceedingly rare that they play a game without intercepting a pass: they’ve had at least one in 10 of their last 13 games.
Rookie QBs also historically struggle in the playoffs, putting up a 10-20 record overall since the merger, with only seven rookies having won at least one start. The Texans are likely to be playing from behind, which will likely mean Stroud will be throwing even more than his 33.3 attempt average from this season.
Of those 30 rookie playoff starts, only seven saw the rookie QB avoid an interception, three of which were courtesy of Brock Purdy last year, and two of which came from Stroud’s opponent on Sunday, Joe Flacco, in his freshman campaign 15 years ago.
Najee Harris (PIT) - Over 58.5 Rush Yards (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills
In terms of the reasoning behind this play, it’s very similar to our Pacheco pick. Buffalo won’t be quite as cold as Kansas City, but they are expecting some ridiculous wind speeds, with some reporting that they could get up to 65 mph. There is also supposed to be over a foot of snow coming down on Sunday in Orchard Park.
The snow, and the wind especially, mean that the passing game will be extremely unreliable if not completely unusable, so there will be a lot of opportunities for the running backs on both teams to put their offenses on their respective backs. The deciding factor in taking Harris over Buffalo’s James Cook was the fact that Josh Allen is basically the Bills’ RB1.
Buffalo is likely to stay with the passing game for longer considering it’s such a strength for them as well. Pittsburgh has been riding their running game lately, averaging over 150 yards on the ground over the final three weeks while leading the league in rush attempts over that span, with 115. Harris has been seeing an enormous workload by his standards, posting the only two 20+ carry performances of his season in the campaign’s final two contests.
Harris has been taking advantage of those added opportunities, averaging 104 yards over the last three weeks. He’s also topped this rushing yards total in seven of his last 10 outings. Pittsburgh is dedicated to the running game, and the inclement weather will only exacerbate that reliance. Harris will hit the over here if only because of the volume he’s going to see.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) - Over 87.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Lions have had the worst pass defense in the league over the past five weeks, but betting on Rams receivers can be a tough proposition, as we’ve seen in recent weeks, because both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are so involved in the offense. It can be hard to predict which one will be the main guy on any given day.
Newly minted First-Team All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown doesn’t have the same issue. He’s the unquestioned number one, and he saw at least eight targets in all but three games this season. He has also hit the over on his yards prop in four straight weeks, and he topped 88 yards in 12 of his 16 appearances this year.
There’s also the question of the Rams’ passing defense, which has been abysmal over the last month or so, giving up over 258 yards per game through the air over the last five weeks, fourth-most over that span. In their last seven meaningful games, the Rams allowed the opponent’s top receiver to go for 80+, with the last three topping 100 by a significant margin.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.