We finished the season decently strong, putting up an 8-6 mark for Week 18’s unpredictable Sunday Slate. We’ll look to bring those good vibes with us into our playoff spread picks for Super Wild Card Weekend from January 13 to 15. As usual, we won’t be looking at moneyline favorites, we’ll be making the best value point spread pick for each matchup thanks to all the best NFL betting odds from the top NFL betting sites and betting apps.
NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Spread Picks NFL Betting Odds
- Two bad weather games make the spread picks more straight forward
- Tampa Bay should be able to complete an upset win at home
- The Lions will win the battle of the Goff-Stafford trade
NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Betting Odds - January 13-15, 2024
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans - 4:30PM, Saturday, January 13
Joe Flacco against C.J. Stroud. The old dog against the young pup. If we’re being honest, Flacco was never more than a serviceable quarterback—except in the playoffs. The 38-year-old has always upped his game in the postseason, and it should be no different in this instance, especially considering he’ll still be fresh as a daisy after playing just five games this season.
It will be interesting to see the NFL’s top passing attack going up against the NFL’s top pass rush over the final five weeks of the season, but Stroud’s rookie status is the deciding factor for us here.
While the presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year has had an excellent season, rookie QBs have historically not fared well in the playoffs: only seven of the 20 rookies to start a playoff game have won, and overall, rookie signal callers are 10-20 in the postseason since the NFL merger. Take the Browns to cover this tiny -2.0 point spread on the road.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs - 8:15PM, Saturday, January 13
|Kansas City Chiefs
It’s a shame that these teams are playing in sub-zero temperatures because this really could have been a barnburner. However, with temperatures expected to be around zero at Arrowhead for the Chiefs’ matchup with the Dolphins, one team has the clear advantage.
Miami has lost its last 10 straight games in weather of 40 degrees fahrenheit or lower, while Kansas City has won nine of its last 10 such games. Going against the Dolphins is that their defense is severely depleted, and their offense is on the mend as well.
One would think that the Fins’ top five rushing attack would be an advantage here, but their backs are all about speed, and in frigid temperatures with precipitation, speed doesn’t mean nearly as much. The Chiefs should roll and cover -4.5 points at home no problem as Miami slinks out of the playoffs in the first round once more.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills - 1PM, Sunday, January 14
The Buffalo Bills are clearly the superior team in nearly all respects, especially with the Steelers missing their All-Pro edge rusher T.J. Watt for the contest, but weather is often the great equalizer.
Buffalo is expecting a lot of snow and extreme winds on Sunday, which could be a boon for a Steelers team that would have a lot of trouble stopping Josh Allen and the Bills’ air attack on a sunny day. The inclement weather would allow the Steelers a small advantage, as they have the superior run game and led the league in attempts over the season’s final three weeks while averaging over 150 on the ground.
There’s also the Tomlin of it all to consider. Of all the current full-time coaches in the NFL, Tomlin’s 64.3 underdog cover rate ATS as an underdog sits behind only Brian Daboll and Matt LaFleur. Tomlin’s ability to consistently play up to his competition paired with a possible advantage via the weather give us confidence that, while we don’t expect Pittsburgh to win outright, we expect them to cover this disrespectful +9.5 spread.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys - 4:30PM, Sunday, January 14
|Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love and the Packers are the youngest playoff roster since the 1970s, and that lack of experience will rear its ugly head against a team that’s as dominant in their building as Dallas is. They’ve gone 8-0 this year in Jerry World while beating opponents by an average of over 20 points.
Meanwhile, Green Bay’s defense has been one of the worst in the league in recent weeks. Not to mention that Mike McCarthy likely has some trade secrets from his decade plus at the helm in Green Bay. Dak Prescott should have a field day in this one and Dallas should roll and cover -7.0 points with relative ease.
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions - 8:15PM, Sunday, January 14
|Los Angeles Rams
Without a doubt, the most intriguing matchup of the weekend sees the Lions hosting the Rams in something of a double-revenge game. In 2021, the Rams traded struggling QB Jared Goff to the Lions in exchange for veteran stud QB Matt Stafford, who promptly led L.A. to a Super Bowl that season.
However, Goff has blossomed in Detroit since Sean McVay and the Rams gave up on him, meaning there will be a lot of emotions going into this one. Stafford is also likely to receive a warm welcome from the Detroit faithful that he entertained during one of the darkest decades of the franchise’s history from 2009-2020.
With Lions star TE Sam LaPorta “optimistic” about playing, we like the Lions here, as this is likely to be a shootout, and we trust their bevy of weapons a little bit more than L.A.’s. Over the past six weeks, both teams have top six rush defenses and bottom four pass defenses. We expect Detroit to cover the -3.0 spread and earn their first playoff win in 32 years.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 8:15PM, Monday, January 15
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers finished the regular season by winning five of their final six games, while the Eagles lost five of their final six. However, QB Baker Mayfield, who has been having quite the resurgence this season, is banged up with ankle and rib injuries and did not practice on Thursday. He’s definitely going to play because he’s just that tough, but he may be limited, which is a worry considering Tampa’s porous running game.
On the flip side, Philly QB Jalen Hurts dislocated the middle finger on his throwing hand and top wideout A.J. Brown has yet to practice this week after picking up a knee injury. Even with those two healthy, the Eagles haven’t looked good lately.
If they’re affected at all by their injuries, that swings the advantage back to Tampa Bay, and with the way Philly has been defending the pass recently (they gave up the eighth-most pass yards over final five weeks), even a banged up Mayfield should be able to do the business. We like the Buccaneers to cover their +3.0 home underdog spread.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.