NFL Week 9 Late Sunday 4PM Betting Picks & Odds - November 2
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
New Orleans Saints (1-7) @ Los Angeles Rams (5-2) - 4:05PM
We would love nothing more than to bet on the Rams spread here: the Saints are 1-6 ATS as an underdog this season, including four of their last five losses coming by double digits. But we simply just can’t in good conscience bet on a 14.5-point spread. We do think the Rams will win this one at home, but the -1,150 moneyline odds (likely the thickest we’ll see all season) sportsbooks are offering for L.A. have forced us to look elsewhere for value.
And we found it with Matthew Stafford. He leads the league with 17 passing TDs this year, including five a couple of weeks ago in London. He has now thrown multiple TDs in five of his last six games. Meanwhile, the Saints have allowed 14 passing TDs this year, tied for eighth-most in the NFL.
They allowed each of their first six opponents to throw for 2+ pass TDs, though they have not allowed a single TD through the air over the past two weeks. That tells us two things: they struggle to stop the pass, and they are overdue for allowing a score or two through those passing lanes. This prop bumps right up against our -200 odds threshold, but we believe the value is still there.
Best Bet: Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-200)
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) - 4:05PM
We truly cannot tell whether either of these teams are good or not. Do they have good coaches? Do they have good QBs? We can’t figure it out, so the safe play here is to focus our attention on a much more specific aspect of the game. Thankfully, the Raiders have the best tight end in football, Brock Bowers, returning from an extended absence to help us out.
Bowers has not played since September 28, but he has been listed as a full practice participant early on this week, which leads us to believe that he’ll be a full go here. He had three sub-50 yard games before he went on the shelf, but that was likely because of his injury.
In Week 1, when he was healthy, he had 103 yards. Bowers also topped 50 yards in 11 of his 17 games as a rookie last year. With the Jags allowing 62.6 receiving yards to TEs (10th-most in the NFL), this feels like the most straightforward option here.
Best Bet: Brock Bowers Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) @ Buffalo Bills (5-2) - 4:25PM
The most highly-anticipated regular season game every year, the Bills-Chiefs matchup is always a tough one to call. Josh Allen is 4-1 against K.C. in the regular season while Patrick Mahomes is 4-0 against the Bills in the playoffs. So, should we go with Allen and the Bills here then? We’re not so sure.
What we are sure about is that Buffalo fields one of the worst run defenses in football. They have had constant injuries along their defensive front, and with Ed Oliver hitting injured reserve, we don’t see it getting any better. Chiefs starting RB Isiah Pacheco is likely to miss this one, which puts Kareem Hunt in the driver’s seat. However, we’re not sure we trust Hunt to put up big rushing numbers in terms of yards.
He’s more of a short-yardage specialist now. So instead, we’ll bet on him to score a TD, which he’s done in three of six games, finding pay dirt twice in two of those games. Buffalo has allowed 10 rushing TDs this season, tied for second-most in the NFL.
Best Bet: Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115)
