Olympics Men’s Hockey: Finland vs Sweden Odds, Analysis, & Picks

One of the best rivalries in international hockey outside of Canada vs USA will take place on Friday in Milan, Italy, at the 2026 Winter Olympics as Finland goes to battle with Sweden. The puck drop is scheduled for 6:10 a.m. ET. The Finns were shocked in their opening preliminary round game, losing 4-1 to Slovakia on Wednesday. They desperately need a victory here to stay alive. The Swedes, meanwhile, beat Italy 5-2 after conceding the opening goal. Read on for the Finland vs Sweden picks.

Odds courtesy of TonyBet.

Finland vs Sweden Odds

Sweden heads into this clash as a -209 favorite at hockey betting sportsbooks.  Finland returns at +160 odds. The O/U is set at 5.5 goals.

The Swedes have won six straight against the Finns in international competition.

Finland vs Sweden Analysis

Finland is seen as one of the dark horses in the Olympics with a roster full of NHL talent. However, their start to the tournament couldn’t have been worse. Heading into their opening game with Slovakia, the Finns were a big favorite. But they simply didn’t come to play, giving up four goals to the Slovaks. Eeli Tolvanen scored the lone goal for Finland, who didn’t have nearly as many opportunities as they should’ve.

Despite the loss to Slovakia, Finland will have confidence that they could respond here. This is a team consisting of players like Oliver Kapanen, Sebastian Aho, Mikko Rantanen, and Anton Lundell, among others. The one major absence for the Finns is Aleksander Barkov, who is out for the season with a knee injury. He’s arguably their best player, and he played a key part in the 4 Nations Face Off last year. But, they have no choice but to get by without him.

The Swedes have always been a threat in international men’s hockey, and these 2026 Olympics are no different. Some of the best players in the National Hockey League hail from Sweden, and many are suiting up for their country. We’re talking William Nylander, Gabriel Landeskog, Victor Hedman, Mika Zibanejad, and Adrian Kempe, just to name a handful.

While it was a shaky start for the Swedes in their first game against Italy, their brilliance eventually shone through. Nylander broke the tie in the second period, and Sweden cruised from there. Rasmus Dahlin and Zibanejad each had three points apiece. Zibanejad, Landeskog, Forsling, and Hedman all scored as well. Sweden’s last three games against Finland have been close, all ending 2-1 in their favor. Each of those games was in the last three World Championships as well.

Finland vs Sweden Picks

The Swedes know they cannot take Finland lightly, especially because the Finns are facing potential elimination with a loss. While I do believe Finland will keep it competitive, Sweden is the stronger team on paper and on the ice. They’ll live up to expectations and move to 2-0-0.  

Pick: Sweden -209/TonyBet