Patriots vs. Jets Week 11 TNF: NFL Betting Odds & Picks

In Week 11’s edition of the NFL’s divisional rivalry series, aka Thursday Night Football, we move to the AFC East, where the division-leading 8-2 New England Patriots host the surging 2-7 New York Jets in Foxboro.

Nonetheless, the Pats come into this one with one of the largest double-digit spreads we’ve seen so far this season. Usually a recipe for trouble for a divisional game, but will that trend hold here? Check out our predictions and picks for the AFC East showdown, as well as our favorite player props for the evening!

NFL Week 11 TNF: New England Patriots (8-2) vs. New York Jets (2-7) Odds & Picks - Nov. 13

All odds provided by Betway.

Patriots vs. Jets Game Prediction

It’s always a bit of a mess cutting through the mess when you have a prime time matchup between division rivals on a short week with a double-digit spread. Say that 10 times fast. But with a 13-point spread, it’s pretty tough to bet on New England here: despite their record, the Jets have only been blown out twice. New England is also just 2-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.

So instead of falling into this spread trap NFL betting sites have set for us, we’re going to pivot to the total this week. The Patriots are No. 8 in scoring offense at 26.5 per game, but the Jets are no slouches either, scoring over 21 per game this season, including 20+ in six of their nine games.

Defensively, the Patriots field a top 10 unit as well, allowing the sixth-fewest points per game. But that’s still over 19. And with the Jets allowing 26.8, the over on this one’s 43.0-point total seems very much within our reach here.

19 really feels like the threshold we need to cross for the Jets offense to hit this. The Patriots have given up 21 to the Steelers, 27 to Tua Tagovailoa and that mess in Miami, and 23 to the Michael Penix Jr.-led Falcons. Most notably, they gave up 19 to Spencer Rattler and the Saints in a close game. Say what you will about Justin Fields, but he leads a much more potent offense than that one down in the Bayou averaging just 15 a game.

To put a button on this pick, the over is 6-3 in Jets games and 6-4 in Patriots games. But when the Jets are a road dog, it’s 3-0, and when the Pats are home favorites, it’s 3-1. Six of nine Jets games have seen 43+ points, and all eight of New England’s wins have hit or gone over that mark as well. While the last two TNF games have been low-scoring snoozers, the first seven editions of this season hit this mark as well.

Prediction: Game Total Over 43.0 Points (-110)

Patriots vs. Jets Player Prop Best Bets

Jets rookie tight end Mason Taylor was completely shut down last week, catching just one ball for four yards. But he has had 30+ yards in four of his previous five games before that, averaging 4.6 receptions and 6.6 targets during that span. New England has also allowed a tight end to hit their over in five of their last seven games, including a couple of massive games for Tampa’s Cade Otton (82 yards on nine receptions) and Dalton Kincaid (108 yards on six receptions).

Elsewhere, the Jets are bottom five in QB rushing yards allowed this year, giving up 25.9 per game. Dillon Gabriel ran wild for 50+ last week against the Jets and even Joe Flacco managed 14 yards on the ground the previous week. 

Meanwhile, Maye actually leads all QBs with 66 rushing attempts on the year, averaging 28.3 a game. Last week he had seven rushes, but managed just 13 yards on them. Before that, he’d hit 20+ in four straight games and six of his last eight.

Best Bet: 

• Mason Taylor 30+ Receiving Yards (-155)
• Drake Maye 20+ Rushing Yards (-140)