UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes Main Event Best Bets & Odds

After over a month of so-so Fight Nights, the UFC is finally back with a PPV for UFC 314 at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. It will be an especially big night in the featherweight division, with four of the final six fights of the night taking place at that weight class. Not to mention those six fights will feature five ranked fighters in that division.

The headliner will be a bout for the vacant featherweight belt, as Ilia Topuria has vacated the title to head up to lightweight to wreak havoc there. That leaves former champ and No. 1 contender Alexander Volkanovski with a chance to reclaim his belt with a win over No. 3 Diego Lopes in the main event on Saturday. Despite being the older fighter and coming in off a layoff of over a year, sportsbooks have the former champion coming in as the favorite. Let’s dive into our best bet!

Note: None of our best bets feature odds shorter than -200.

UFC 314: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes - Main & Co-Main Event Best Bets & Odds

All odds provided by Betway.

No. 1 Alexander Volkanovski vs. No. 3 Diego Lopes Featherweight Championship Main Event Bout Betting Odds

I saw Jesse Holland at MMAMania describe No. 3 featherweight contender Diego Lopes (26-6) as a “Dustin Poirier or Justin Gaethje type of featherweight” in that he will continually give us exciting fights, but will ultimately always fall short of a title.

We could not agree more. The Brazilian fighter has earned a title shot just six fights into his UFC career though, which is no small feat.He got here by taking down some solid fighters in Brian Ortega, Dan Ige, and Sodiq Yusuff. Solid, but not world-class.

Alexander Volkanovski (26-4) has been fighting the creme de la creme for years. He has been knocked out twice in his last two fights, but Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria are pretty darn good I reckon. He has taken a much-deserved layoff, and I like him to come back fresher rather than washed as many seem to think. He had fought six times in just under two years before this break.

Lopes is a wild and whacky fighter, but he won’t be able to match Volk’s technical ability. The more experienced fighter will use patience and accuracy to break Lopes down. Lopes could try and get the former champ to the mat and sink in a submission like he has to devastating effect a dozen times before. But, Volk’s got a solid 70 percent takedown defense. He’s also savvy enough to stay safe even if he is taken down.

It’s also important to note that Lopes has never headlined a UFC card—not even a Fight Night, much less a PPV—which means he hasn’t fought a five-round fight. He wouldn’t be the first to falter under the bright lights and pressure of a main event bout in glitzy Miami. The sheer stamina required to go 25 minutes in the octagon is something foreign to him as well.

Volkanovski does that stuff in his sleep, going at least four rounds in six straight before the knockouts started flying in his recent fights. UFC betting sites are giving us Alexander the Great at very reasonable -130 moneyline odds. We’re not turning our nose up at that.

Best Bet: Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (-130)/Betway