UFC 315: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena Main & Co-Main Event Predictions, Best Bets, & Betting Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
( C ) Belal Muhammad vs. No. 5 Jack Della Maddalena Welterweight Championship Main Event Bout Betting Odds
This is obviously not the matchup the UFC wanted. They were hoping that Belal Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC), a gritty wrestler with an insane gas tank that simply doesn’t fight in the way that drives ticket sales, would be taken down by undefeated terminator Shavkat Rakhmonov. However, the Kazakhstani scrapper tore up his knee, so Jack Della Maddalena (17-2) was called into action.
Maddalena has been out for over a year after undergoing surgery on his arm last May. He has also never fought in a main event, and that means two things.
One, he’s never seen the lights shine this brightly, whereas Muhammad has been the main or co-main event in four of his last five fights. Dana White doesn’t like his fighting style, but you can’t argue with wins, and Muhammad hasn’t lost since January 2019, a span of 11 fights.
The other thing it means—and this one is far more important—is that Maddalena has never gone 25 minutes. He’s never even been scheduled for five rounds. Meanwhile, Muhammad’s point-punching, clinching, controlling, wrestling style is perfect for a longer bout. And the champ has the gas tank to go along with it, whereas Maddalena has never gone more than 15 minutes and hasn’t fought in 14 months.
Maddalena did win a split decision against Kevin Holland, and his finish of Gilbert Burns burnished his resume, but Holland is wishy-washy and Burns was on the downturn. Muhammad arguably started that downturn.
The Chicago native has been fighting the best of the best for years. In his last five fights he has beaten Stephen Thompson (No. 11 contender, former title challenger), Vicente Luque (No. 14), Sean Brady (No. 1), Burns (No. 8, former title challenger), and then took the belt from champ Leon Edwards without really even pushing himself.
He’s not the kind of fighter that Dana White would co-sign—not only his style in the octagon, but outside of it, especially with his vocal support of his parents’ home, Palestine—but he’s the kind of fighter that knows how to win fights. He’s not flashy, but he gets the job done. Maddalena is by far the better striker, no one’s arguing that, but Muhammad simply won’t let him get his big shots off or get into rhythm.
Expect a lot of control time for the champ and a lot of boos. But also a win at -188 odds. 12 of his last 14 wins have come via decision, and Maddalena hasn’t been finished in a decade, so for a little extra value from betting apps, you could go with Muhammad at -105 odds.
Best Bet: Belal Muhammad Moneyline (-188)
( C ) Valentina Shevchenko vs. No. 2 Manon Fiorot Women’s Flyweight Championship Bout Betting Odds
This one is tough to call beforehand, and we’re guessing it’ll be the same deal after 25 minutes. We’re not sure what to make of Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1) after a rollercoaster trilogy with Alexa Grasso. Meanwhile, Manon Fiorot (12-1), hasn’t lost since her very first pro MMA fight in 2018, including a 7-0 run in the UFC.
However, we don’t think she’s been especially dominant in most of those wins, so her coming in as the favorite here is very notable. Shevchenko is 37 with a ton of tread on the tires, but she’s not just technically sound. This may sound corny, but after that win against Grasso, it’s clear she’s got the “heart of a champion” as well. That’s cheese, but we think Shevchenko should still be chalk against a relatively uninspiring challenger here.
Best Bet: Valentina Shevchenko Moneyline (+110)/Betway
