UFC 316: Main Card Predictions, Best Bets, & Betting Odds

After a month of slop, the UFC finally hits back with another PPV this Saturday. UFC 316 will be in New Jersey and feature two championship bouts. While some may call the rest of the main card a 87“Patchy Mix” of matchups, we think there is more than enough to get an MMA fan out of bed on this card.

In the main event, Merab Dvalishvili will defend his bantamweight belt against Sean O’Malley in a rematch of last year’s title duel, which was dominated by the current champ. In the co-main, Julianna Pena will make the first title defense of her second reign as women’s bantamweight champ against heavily favored No. 2 contender Kayla Harrison.

The rest of the main card features a couple of legends and a couple of ranked fighters. Let’s dive into the betting odds for these scraps, as well as our best bets!

Note: None of our best bets feature odds shorter than -200.

UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley Main Card Predictions, Best Bets, & Betting Odds - June 7

All odds provided by Betway.

( C ) Merab Dvalishvili vs. No. 1 Sean O’Malley Bantamweight Championship Bout Betting Odds

This rematch comes nine months after this pair first met with the title on the line. In that one, Sean O’Malley (18-2, 1 NC) came in as the champ, with Merab Dvalishvili (19-4) playing the role of challenger. After Dvalishvili’s dominant win in that one, they have swapped roles at UFC 316. However, we don’t think we’ll be swapping results.

There hasn’t been enough time for O’Malley to truly change his game enough to hang with the Georgian’s breakneck pace and takedown prowess. He landed six at a 40 percent clip last time, and he was impressive in a win as a massive underdog in his most recent fight against Umar Nurmagomedov.

O’Malley’s lanky frame is simply perfect for Dvalishvili’s style. It’s a poor matchup for the American. Dvalishvili only has one finish in the UFC, however, and O’Malley has never been finished properly, with his one TKO loss coming after he broke his ankle and couldn’t stand. With that in mind, we’ll go with Dvalishvili by decision here.

Best Bet: Merab Dvalishvili to Win via Decision (-163)

( C ) Julianna Pena vs. No. 2 Kayla Harrison Women’s Bantamweight Championship Bout Betting Odds

Well, clearly sports betting sites think Julianna Pena (12-5) will have a short reign as the champ of the women’s bantamweight division. We’d have to agree sadly. Kayla Harrison (18-1) is massive and she’s been solid since coming to the UFC, submitting Holly Holm and winning a boring decision against Ketlen Vieira.

Pena has only fought once in the last three years, that split decision win against Raquel Pennington last October that was arguably the most boring title fight in UFC history. It’s really a matter of how for Harrison. Two of Harrison’s last four wins have come via submission, as have two of Pena’s last three losses, so we’ll roll with that.

Best Bet: Kayla Harrison to Win via Submission (+140)

No. 14 Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland Welterweight Bout Betting Odds

In the main card opener, Kevin Holland (27-13, 1 NC) will look to reclaim his spot in the top 15 against Vicente Luque (23-10-1). Holland has struggled against grapplers like this, but Luque is actually a pretty solid striker himself, so we think he’ll be willing to stand and trade. Holland’s six-inch reach and massive power will win him the day if it stays there though. Luque was knocked out in his two most recent losses, and beat up pretty bad in both, and Holland hasn’t had a KO win since 2023, so “Trailblazer” is due.

Best Bet: Kevin Holland to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+130)/Betway