UFC 323 Main Card Betting Analysis, Picks & Betting Odds

The first three fights of the main card at UFC 323 feature a lot of star power and top 15 rankings implications. In the opener, former champ and No. 6 light heavyweight contender Jan Blachowicz (29-11-1) battles No. 11 Bogdan Guskov (18-3).

After that we get a very intriguing vet vs. rook matchup with another former champ, Henry Cejudo (16-5), looking to stave off the bantamweight’s hot new thing in Payton Talbott (10-1). In the third fight of the main card, top five flyweights Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) and Tatsuro Taira (17-1) each look to cement themselves as the next title challenger in the division.

Read on for our best bets for each of these three opening fights on the UFC 323 main card as well as the top UFC betting odds in Canada!

Note: None of our best bets feature odds shorter than -200.

UFC 323 Main Card Picks & Betting Odds - December 5

All odds provided by Betway.

No. 6 Jan Blachowicz vs. No. 11 Bogdan Guskov Light Heavyweight Bout Betting Odds

Jan Blachowicz’s last fight, a loss to Carlos Ulberg, which came after a two-year layoff, wasn’t anything special. But coming off a nearly two-year layoff, it was pretty solid. Bogdan Guskov, meanwhile, has been rolling, winning his last four straight after losing his UFC debut in 2023. Though those wins haven’t come against what you’d call a murderer’s row of opponents.

The Uzbek fighter likes to launch big missiles, which is why he has 15 wins via TKO/KO. But Blachowicz has only been knocked out twice in his career. Once in 2019, and once in 2011. We think that, instead, the more experienced fighter will be able to catch Guskov overextending himself, get him to the ground, and exert his Polish Power over him there. In that wrestling arena, Blachowicz dwarfs Guskov.

Best Bet: Jan Blachowicz Moneyline (-138)

No. 10 Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Bantamweight Bout Betting Odds

Henry Cejudo returned three years after his retirement to chase his old belt again. He has now lost thrice in a row, and Cejudo has been beaten pretty comprehensively each time. It seems like the UFC wants his No. 10 ranking going to the American prodigy Payton Talbott.

Just 27 years old, Talbott has just one loss and has gone 4-1 since joining the UFC. While his original hype died a bit with that lone loss, he’s still a massive problem for Cejudo, who seems headed for his second retirement after this one.

Talbott is six inches taller than Cejudo and has a six-inch reach advantage too. Not to mention he’s 11 years younger. So even if Cejudo gets him down like Raoni Barcelos was able to do in that one fight Talbott lost, Cejudo won’t be able to keep him down. We think Talbott bounces back with a big TKO win here to send Cejudo out the door for a second time. Mentally, he’s probably already there.

Best Bet: Payton Talbott to Win via TKO/KO/DQ (+230)

No. 2 Brandon Moreno vs. No. 5 Tatsuro Taira Flyweight Bout Betting Odds

Fan favorite Brandon Moreno just won’t go away. He drew, lost, or won the flyweight championship in six straight bouts. But this will be his fourth straight fight without championship implications as he works his way back. If he wins this, though, he gets another title shot.

But Tatsuro Taira, who beat Alex Perez impressively, lost a tight one to Brandon Royval, and beat up Park Hyun-sung, is no slouch. He wants that title shot too. The Japanese fighter will want to take this one to the ground and dominate there, but we’re not sure the savvy Moreno will let him.

Moreno is so well-rounded, and we think he is similar to Royval, who really frustrated Taira on the feet. The “Assassin Baby” has great takedown defense, and we think he’s a much better striker than Taira. Taira, who is just 25, might end up better than Moreno when all is said and done with their respective careers. But for now, the Mexican is the better fighter.

Best Bet: Brandon Moreno Moneyline (+100)