UFC 323: Merab vs Yan 2 Main & Co-Main Event Betting Picks & Odds

The UFC returns to its home away from home in Las Vegas at T-Mobile Arena for a stacked UFC 323 card. There are two championships at stake on Saturday night in Sin City. And while they are for the two lightest weight classes in the UFC—flyweight (125) and bantamweight (135)—they are still title fights.

In the main event, flyweight champ Merab Dvalishvili (21-4) is a huge betting favorite as he defends his title against No. 3 contender Petr Yan (19-5) in a rematch from 2023. In the co-main event, the flyweight champ, Alexander Pantoja (30-5) is also a pretty hefty favorite over his challenger, wunderkind No. 1 contender Joshua Van (15-2). Will we get any upsets? Read on for our picks and analysis to find out!

Note: None of our best bets feature odds shorter than -200.

UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 Main & Co-Main Event Picks & Betting Odds - December 5

All odds provided by Betway.

(C) Merab Dvalishvili vs. No. 3 Petr Yan Bantamweight Championship Bout Betting Odds

Merab Dvalishvili has been one of the most dominant champions in recent UFC memory, if not one of the most exciting. He has unanimous decision’d three of his last four opponents, though he did get an exciting ninja choke victory against Sean O’Malley earlier this year.

Coming up against him is Petr Yan, who has beaten the No. 5, No. 6, and No. 15 ranked fighters in the division since losing to Merab in March 2023. Those rankings might make those wins seem better than they were, however. And while Yan is still mostly the same fighter as he was last time these two fought and he was dominated for five rounds, Merab has gotten a lot better.

Last time, Dvalishvili spammed 49 takedown attempts, landing 11. We don’t think he will need as many attempts to land that many takedowns this time around. And while Yan is the better striker, Merab represents himself deceivingly well on that front. The gas tank and activity, even on just two months' rest, makes Dvalishvili this prohibitive favorite. 

We’re taking Dvalishvili’s -5.5 spread, which is priced at -200 odds on most Canadian betting apps, but if you can find a -6.5 spread with better odds, that would be ideal. At the least, Dvalishvili would need to win four rounds on two scorecards (49-46) and three on the other (48-47) to hit that (3+3+1=7), otherwise he goes under. So might as well buy up one more point on the spread for a little more juice if you can find the prop.

Best Bet: Merab Dvalishvili -5.5 Spread (-200)

(C) Alexandre Pantoja vs. No. 1 Joshua Van Flyweight Championship Bout Betting Odds

Alexandre Pantoja has been rolling since he became the champ of the flyweight division back in 2023. His last two wins were quick and painless, though this latest challenger might pose a different test. Joshua Van is just 24 years old, a baby by professional MMA standards. But he’s 8-1 since he joined the UFC back in 2023. And his last win over Brandon Royval opened a lot of eyes.

Unfortunately, his high-volume style will not serve him well against the savvy Pantoja. The champ is like a counter-puncher in the boxing ring—except he does it with level changes and takedowns. He wants you to come at him so he can choose the perfect moment to get you on the ground. And once he gets Van there, the inexperienced youngster is liable to make a big mistake that “The Cannibal” will exploit.

Best Bet: Alexandre Pantoja to Win via Submission (+145)