UFC Vegas 107 Main Card Predictions, Best Bets, & Betting Odds - May 31
All odds provided by Betway.
No. 4 Erin Blanchfield vs. No. 5 Maycee Barber Women’s Flyweight Bout Betting Odds
Based on the odds for the fight to go the distance and the total rounds over/under, you can probably tell how betting apps are expecting this fight to go. Maycee Barber (14-2) has some pop in her hands, but Erin Blanchfield (13-2), while not an excellent offensive striker, has great defense on the feet. Barber has an overall advantage in the stand-up, but we’re not sure she’ll be able to use it.
Her 53 percent takedown defense leaves a lot to be desired, and suggests Blanchfield, who is much stronger on the mat, will be able to successfully land some takedowns on Barber. In recent fights, Andrea Lee went 5-for-5 on takedowns against Barber, and Amanda Ribas went 2-for-3.
Meanwhile, Blanchfield’s 39.3 percentage control time ranks third in the division, her 27.7 top position percentage ranks fourth, and her bottom position percentage (0.44) leads the division. Her 14 takedowns are also ranked seventh. That means that Barber, who has managed most of her TKOs through ground-and-pound, will not get that chance in this fight.
It’s also worth noting that Barber is coming off a nine-month layoff after tearing her ACL, and this is her first ever five-round fight. Blanchfield, meanwhile, will be fighting in her third straight five-rounder, and she went the distance in the last two, losing to Manon Fiorot and beating former champ Rose Namajunas.
We believe this fight will be similar to that Namajunas one. Blanchfield maintained control for much of the fight, with nearly nine minutes of control time, but didn’t put her dominance in danger by attempting any submissions. We think she will use similar tactics for this one as she earns a hard-fought win via decision.
Best Bet: Erin Blanchfield to Win via Decision (-110)
No. 7 Mateusz Gamrot vs. L’udovit Klein Lightweight Bout Betting Odds
In the co-main event, we get grinding wrestler Mateusz Gamrot (24-3, 1 NC), who finally gets a matchup after months of pushing other contenders to fight him. However, that matchup comes against non-ranked former featherweight L’udovit Klein (23-4-1), who is on a seven-fight unbeaten run. Gamrot was nearly in the mix for a title shot before losing a split decision to Dan Hooker last August. He will look to make amends here and remain in the hunt for a title shot.
Gamrot is much bulkier than the former featherweight, which could be a big issue for the Slovak. Generally, if you’re going to beat Gamrot, you have to beat him up early with a lot of volume. But while he has the punching power, Klein doesn’t really have the volume to pull that off.
His division-record 95.2 takedown defense is impressive, but he has not fought someone of Gamrot’s wrestling caliber yet. Expect this one to be a long grind with Gamrot eventually having his arm raised after out-toughing and out-lasting the Slovakian.
Best Bet: Mateusz Gamrot Moneyline (-160)/Betway
